Severe Weather Potential Sunday Night
Weather Update – 7:00 a.m. Sunday
Showers continue to move northeast through West Tennessee this Sunday morning. There are no thunderstorms to speak of but some showers are coming down heavily, for instance in the Brownsville area that has already seen just under 11″ of rain in the last several days.
We should start to see a bigger break in the rain by lunchtime at the latest across West Tennessee. Some sunshine may make a brief appearance allowing for temperatures to reach the upper 60s and low 70s this afternoon.
More showers and thunderstorms will return tonight ahead of another area of low pressure. Once again, heavy rain will bring a risk for flash flooding and will test the strength of area levees in the river basins.
West Tennessee has a “marginal” (1) to “slight” (2) risk for severe weather. The threat is generally low, but strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, especially in southwest Tennessee after 8pm tonight.
In addition to a likely chance for flash flooding, any thunderstorms that become severe could bring damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out but tornadoes appear more likely to our southwest in parts of southern and central Arkansas. With damaging winds, the ground is soft enough from recent rainfall to allow for trees to be easily blown over. Power outages will likely occur if this happens.
We could get an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall tonight in some of the heaviest showers. With any thunderstorms that move through, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that 2 to 4 inches will be possible. Flash flooding will likely affect areas near rivers, creeks, and streams but urban flooding will be possible too.
Storm Team 7 Chief Meteorologist, CBM
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