Cristobal Likely to Bring Rain to West Tennessee Next Week
Weather Update – 10:00 p.m. – Friday, June 5th
Showers and thunderstorms moved out of West Tennessee earlier this evening and showers are unlikely from tomorrow through Monday morning. Cristobal will likely make landfall on the Gulf Coast on Sunday and continue north toward West Tennessee. The main concerns are heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding, but we may also experience gusty winds at times and even an isolated tornado.
TONIGHT
Skies will remain cloudy overnight but rain chances are low with only a 20% chance for isolated showers overnight. Expect calm winds with overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Tomorrow will be the hottest day of the year so far! Temperatures will be in the 90s with a heat index close to 100°F in some areas. Expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and a slight chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly dry weather is expected to continue Sunday before Cristobal impacts our weather early next week during the workweek. Stay with WBBJ 7 Eyewitness news for the latest forecast and keep up with Storm Team Weather online too for more updates.
TROPICAL OUTLOOK
The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Cristobal this evening and they have found that the storm is a little stronger. The pressure has dropped to 998 mb and data supports a wind speed of about 40 kt. Cristobal continues to have a large and asymmetric appearance with most of the showers and thunderstorms and strong winds to the north and east of the center. The storm is moving northward at a slightly faster pace, about 12 kt. A south to north steering flow between a deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico should cause Cristobal to continue moving generally northward for the next couple of days. Cristobal will likely continue to slowly strengthen until it makes landfall along the northern Gulf coast in a couple of days. However, the broad structure of the cyclone, dry air on the west side of the system, and moderate wind shear should prevent a significant amount of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is close to the various consensus models. Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it makes landfall. Therefore, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast path as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well to the east of the center.
Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible along the Florida Big Bend and in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials.
Tropical storm force winds are expected by late Saturday night along the northern Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal’s center.
Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller tributaries, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.
Tom Meiners
Storm Team 7 Chief Meteorologist, CBM
Twitter – @WBBJ7TomMeiners
Facebook – http://facebook.com/WBBJ.tom.meiners
Email – tmeiners@wbbjtv.com
