Great Tonight, Warmer Thursday, Humid Friday/Saturday, Rain Chances Sunday
Wednesday Night Forecast Update
Wednesday Night Forecast for June 16th:
The weather will be amazing again tonight, the heat will kick up some though Thursday and the humidity will follow on Friday and Saturday. Models have slowed the tropical activity down some and shifted it to the east a little bit. This should keep the rain away for most of us on Saturday, but not Sunday. Rain chances look to return on Father’s Day to West Tennessee and strong storms could return early next week as well.
The nice weather will continue no doubt for Thursday & Friday, but things get more complicated this weekend. A likely tropical system is forecast to move north out of the Gulf of Mexico, but a cold front is also coming in from the north that could cut off most of the rain and possible impacts from the tropical system. The location, timing and strength of both the front and the tropical low will determine if we get storms, heavy rain, or very little rain this weekend in West Tennessee.
We will be watching the situation unfold in the Storm Team Weather Center over the next 72 hours and will have a full report
Clear skies will remain tonight in West Tennessee and the humidity will remain lower then over the weekend allowing temperatures to fall into the mid 60s instead of the mid 70s. Winds will be calm most of the night. Tonight will be another night to open up those windows and turn the AC off.
Sunny skies are expected to stick around for most of the work week. The winds will continue to come out of the north early keeping the humidity down some but will be shifting to the west by the afternoon. It will be a little warmer then earlier in the week with highs in the upper 80s or low 90s. Skies should remain dominated by sunshine. It will be mild at night still with lows dropping into the upper 60s.
The winds will begin to change direction and come out of the south on Friday. That will increase the temperature as well as increasing the humidity. Highs will make it back into the 90s on Friday and the heat index will be back close to 100° again. We will see a few more clouds in Friday then most of the work week, but they will do little to tame the heat coming in. Dry weather though is expected to continue all day.
Long term forecast models are suggesting a tropical storm system could form this week in the Gulf of Mexico and drift northward this week. The system could reach the gulf coast Friday night and bring shower and storm chances to West Tennessee over the weekend. Some of the models are also showing a cold front coming on for the weekend as well which could push the tropical activity to the east of us as well. The forecast is a bit tricky this weekend and we will be monitoring the situation closely this week in the Storm Team Weather Center.
Recent model runs coming out on Wednesday are showing the system slowing down some and the highest rain amounts are staying south and east of West Tennessee. Most of the models are showing a dry Saturday and rain chances are less on Sunday then they were in the earlier week’s forecast model outputs. That is obviously good news for people with outdoor plans this weekend, but continue to monitor the forecast as it could continue to change over the next 48 hours.
Highs on Saturday should reach the low 90s with mostly sunny skies and Sunday highs should reach the upper 80s. Expect more clouds on Sunday and chances for rain, with the greatest chances being places southeast of Jackson in West Tennessee.
A powerful cold front looks to be heading our way on Monday next week and could bring some strong thunderstorms with it as if moves through the region. Highs will drop to the low 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday behind the front and some off us could see overnight lows dipping back into the upper 50s during the middle of the week.
Not only are we now officially in tropical storm season, we are still in the middle of our severe weather season. So you need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.