Severe Storms Likely Later
Weather Update: Friday, October 15 —
Good Morning West Tennessee. We have a wet start to the morning so far. Showers and storms have been focused on a boundary extending from about Paducah towards Memphis. The boundary will continue to slowly shift east and likely take most of the current showers and storms with it. Behind the disturbance air will be sinking back towards the surface which should create a bit of a lull through the late morning and afternoon. That is where the forecast for the rest of the day gets tricky. There will probably be a nice 2-4 hour window of recovery. The more sunshine, the more unstable the atmosphere will become before new storms blow up this afternoon. The general consensus among the high resolution guidance models is new storms form by 1:00 PM. The initial storms will carry the elevated tornado threat if they start to spin. Unfortunately the environment will be conducive and have a tendency to support rotating updrafts at that time. Storms will continue increasing in coverage mainly closer to the cold front located in East-Central Arkansas, the guidance show they will start to cluster up and become more of a bowing segment by 4 PM as it moves ESE across West Tennessee. Once this happens the tornado threat will decrease, but the wind threat will increase as that organized line clears the area through 8-9 PM. Beyond that point the severe threat should come to an end, the cold front will move in later tonight dropping temps like a rock overnight down into the upper 40s by Saturday morning.
Storm Team Meteorologist