Heat Extremes Continue, Storms Over The Weekend

WBBJ 7 Forecast Update:

Hopefully you are staying cool West Tennessee! We have seen a heat index between 110-120° so far yesterday.  The excessive heat warning has been extended Saturday for all of us, but a better chance for showers and storms will also return this weekend. Catch the latest on the heat and more on the incoming weekend storm chances right here. A cold front will move closer to the area today and provide better chances that some of this hot and humid air starts to lift in the form of pop up storms.  A couple of storms could become strong or severe in the afternoon.

A slight risk or 2 out of 5 risk exists for all of west Tennessee for the afternoon. Not everyone will get a storm but storms that do develop could become severe so stay weather aware and check in often.

TIMING:

Today is like the popcorn situation. We have the hot and humid air in place. This would be like the hot pan. Some popcorn will start to pop in the afternoon and evening but which one pops first is to be determined. We will have some lift along the approaching front and as it gets closer, we’ll see more storms begin to pop. First alert futurecast tries to figure out, based on current conditions, when to first kernels of popcorn will pop first and where. Models while helpful at times, can’t yet always predict exactly where the storms will pop or the exact time or town. Once the storms start to develop on radar, we can track the movement and location and have a better handle on timing. Current model runs are showing the possible storms trying to pop up around the 1 to 2 pm hour and continuing through late afternoon.

The big ridge that setup over the area this week will finally start to break down into the weekend and a cold front will head our way. The front should move through by late Sunday bringing another round of storms tomorrow as well as cooler temperatures next week.

An excessive heat warning remain in effect through Saturday evening. Dewpoint temperatures were already in the upper 70’s this morning and the combination of high moisture levels in the air along with temperatures in the upper 90’s will make for another dangerously hot day.

THE WEEKEND:

The next front is going to approach sometime late this weekend. As the front approaches we are expecting several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. There is a chance some of the storms could be intense so if you have weekend plans be sure to monitor the forecast this week as the system gets a little closer. We are under a slight risk for severe storms on Saturday, but not everyone is going to encounter storms. Don’t let that chance for storms cause you to cancel your plans, but be sure to stay weather aware.

We are still expecting a very hot Saturday with highs again reaching the upper 90s to near 100°. Saturday will also remain very hot and humid. The excessive heat warning was extended through Saturday evening for all of West Tennessee. If you encounter one of these showers or storms though temperatures will cool down temporarily.

As the system approaches we are expecting a cool down and Sunday highs will probably be about 5° cooler, but still could reach up to the mid 90s. Sunday will also bring another round of showers and storms and the greatest chances for severe weather will be counties northeast of Madison county.

As the front gets closer late this weekend, we should fall to the low 70s for Monday morning but stay in the mid 70s to start Sunday. The winds will shift from the southwest and shift to the west late Sunday night into Monday morning. Skies will be partly cloudy but we will see periods of mostly cloudy skies as the front passes through.

NEXT WEEK:

The forecast next week looks pretty mild compared to this week. Skies in general will be partly cloudy and highs will make it up to the low 90s. Overnight lows will typically fall down to the low 70s and the winds will come out of the west or southwest all week long. Each afternoon and evening there will be a chance for some heat driven pop up showers and storms. How many and where exactly they are going to pop up each day will be difficult to forecast. There will likely be a few storm and showers on the 4th of July but most should clear out before the sunsets. The next front is likely to pass by on Thursday bringing another cool down and finally a change in the winds from the southwest to the northeast.

HEAT SAFETY TIPS:

The CDC reports that around 700 people per year die from heat related deaths.  It’s important to know the signs of heat related illnesses such as heat exhaustion or a heat stroke.

The best way to beat the heat is to know the signs of these heat related illnesses, stay hydrated, and try to keep cool.

Heat exhaustion is a very serious heat related illness. According to the CDC, the following are signs of heat exhaustion:

• Heavy sweating
• Cold, pale, and clammy skin
• Fast, weak pulse
• Nausea or vomiting
• Muscle cramps
• Tiredness or weakness
• Dizziness
• Headache
• Fainting (passing out)

And the CDC recommends the following for someone who is suffering from heat exhaustion:

• Move to a cool place
• Loosen your clothes
• Put cool, wet cloths on your body or take a cool bath
• Sip water

Get medical help right away if:
• You are throwing up
• Your symptoms get worse
• Your symptoms last longer than 1 hour

Prolonged exposure to extreme temperatures or heat exhaustion can lead to heat stroke, if not cautious.

According to the CDC website the following are signs of Heat Stroke:

• High body temperature (103°F or higher)
• Hot, red, dry, or damp skin
• Fast, strong pulse
• Headache
• Dizziness
• Nausea
• Confusion
• Losing consciousness (passing out)

And the best way according to the CDC to treat heat stroke is to do the following:

• Call 911 right away, heat stroke is a medical emergency
• Move the person to a cooler place
• Help lower the person’s temperature with cool cloths or a cool bath
• Do not give the person anything to drink

The severe heat can cause other heat related illnesses. Sunburns, sometimes severe, are always a possibility with exposure to sun. It is so important to always wear sunscreen and try to wear clothing or accessories like hats to prevent sun damage.

Stay informed of heat related illnesses, drink plenty of water and stay hydrated, and be mindful of feeling overheated. Seek shelter from the sun and hot temps when its possible, and keep a check on relatives or friends who may be affected by the extreme temperatures.

FINAL THOUGHT:

Highs are expected to  climb well above normal this weekend before cooling back down some again into next week. We could be seeing our first 100° days of the year for some of us into the weekend. There is a chance for showers late in the week and the next storm threat will be here late this weekend, so be sure to stay weather aware.  We need the rain as the drought situation is slowly becoming an issue across West Tennessee. You need to stay alert to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.

For tips on preparing for the storms, click here. To download the WBBJ 7 Weather app, click here.

Brian Davis
Storm Team 7 Meteorologist

Twitter – @Brian7wbbj
Facebook – Briandaviswbbj
Email – Badavis@wbbjtv.com