A Cool Start Saturday, Heat Expands East Sunday

WBBJ 7 Forecast Update:

A heat dome continues to build to our west and will start to affect the area into the Weekend. The heat and humidity will be returning though by the end of the weekend and continue into next week. Rain chances are looking slim for several days. The tropics are beginning to become very active and we will have the latest forecast chances on any of these potential storms reaching the Gulf of Mexico coming up here.

THE WEEKEND:

We started off our Saturday with 59 degrees and a beautiful sunrise. As the day goes on high temperatures will reach the upper 80s to near 90°. Saturday will not be a humid day with the winds being light and coming out of the east on the backside of an area of high pressure sitting along the Mid Atlantic coastline. Sunny skies will linger around for most of the day although there might a few occasional clouds. Saturday night lows will be pleasant again and fall down into the mid 60s.

Sunday is going to be a bit warmer and the humidity will begin to tick up some due to the wind direction. The winds will come more out of the southeast on Sunday as high pressure continues to move further east into the Atlantic Ocean. That will allow some moisture off the Atlantic Ocean to move into the Mid South. It will be not be overly humid and we are not expecting a heat advisory but some locations could reach the mid 90s into the afternoon and evening hours. Everyone in West Tennessee should be 90° or hotter though by 3pm. We might see a few clouds but sunny skies will stick around for the majority of us all day long. Sunday night lows will fall down to the low 70s.

NEXT WEEK:

For those of your hoping for a long dry period without rain, next week looks like it is going to be your week. Skies will be sunny to mostly sunny all work week long and chances for rain are less than 10% each day next week. There will be a weak front that will drift through in the middle of the week but that will only bring a change in the wind direction and might bring a short break from the humidity. Temperatures will likely be in the mid 90s each and some days towards the back half of the week are forecast to return to the upper 90s.

The winds will start out of the south on Monday before turning back to the northeast sometime late into the day on Tuesday. The winds will shift back to the west during the back half of the work week. Morning lows all week will drop down into the low to mid 70s each morning. Enjoy the seasonable weather and maybe those projects you have been putting off, because things have been so wet, you can finally get a handle on some of them.

LATEST IN THE TROPICS:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show some signs of 
organization in association with a broad area of low pressure 
located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. 
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form over the weekend while it moves toward the west-northwest or 
northwest at about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. By 
early next week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to 
increase, and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An elongated trough of low pressure located roughly halfway between 
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing some 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are 
only marginally conducive for further development of this system, 
but a tropical depression could still form during the day or so 
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central 
tropical Atlantic. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to 
become unfavorable for any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles:
Another area of low pressure could form in a day or so from an 
elongated trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to 
the east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Some slow development of 
this system is possible over the weekend and into early next week 
as it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the 
Lesser Antilles and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

4. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located over the southeastern Bahamas 
is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, 
where a broad area of low pressure could form. Thereafter, some slow 
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression 
could form as it moves westward and approaches the western Gulf of 
Mexico coastline by the middle of next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

FINAL THOUGHT:

Highs are expected to a little below normal over the weekend. The rain and storm chances are slim to none over the next 7 days.  The heat and humidity will return at times this weekend and continue into next week. Expect an overall warm and dry pattern for the middle of August. The tropics are starting to heat up and will be getting plenty of attention from us meteorologists in the south as overall the storm threat looks to be very low next week. You need to stay alert to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely for heat and the potential for some isolated heat wave next week. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.

For tips on preparing for the storms, click here. To download the WBBJ 7 Weather app, click here.

Brian Davis
Storm Team 7 Meteorologist
Twitter – @Brian7wbbj
Facebook – Briandaviswbbj
Email – Badavis@wbbjtv.com