West Tennessee Winter Forecast: 2014-2015 Season
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JACKSON, Tenn. — Colder weather is finally here in West Tennessee, which means the potential for school closures, dangerous roads and bone-chilling cold. West Tennesseans will soon prepare for snow, sleet, freezing rain and even the ongoing possibility for severe weather. This upcoming winter, West Tennessee has a 33 percent chance for temperatures to be cooler than average. As far as snow totals are concerned, it is more difficult to tell. On average, Jackson only sees a few inches of snow per year, but in some winters past, we have received as much as a foot of snow from a single storm. The difficulty in forecasting winter weather originates with temperatures that do not always stay below freezing, especially here in the Mid-South. As a result, we typically get a variation of rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow. “In very broad terms, just the probabilities of being above or below normal temperature, above or below normal precipitation,” said Gary Woodall, the warning coordinator meteorologist from the National Weather Service in Memphis. “Now within those three months, of course we’re gonna have a lot of variations — warm periods, cold periods, stormy periods and the like.” “Typically when we‘re looking for winter weather conditions, we look to see how cold the layer of subfreezing air near the ground is really gonna be,” Woodall said. “How warm is the air above that, how deep are all of these different air columns, and just some very subtle variations can make all of the difference.” A variety of factors will go into predicting our winter weather. Meteorologists study prior winters, ocean temperatures and the jet stream. This year, a weak El-Niño is forecast to occur here in the Mid-South. As a result, the VIPIR 7 Storm Team is predicting cooler than average temperatures through February because these types of events can usually result in cold weather during the winter season when present. The National Weather Service issues seasonal outlooks, but these outlooks are only a guide into what can actually happen. They are often used by highway and street departments to plan their winter budgets and action plans for when the wintry conditions hit. “Both the Weather Service and the locals that we look for to give us those predictions and the information that we need to be able to go out and man the roads and make sure that the roads are safe to travel on,” said Nichole Lawrence, a communications officer with the Tennessee Department of Transportation. Many times, these long-term forecasts will not end up verifying, which is why it is always good to plan for all types of weather. Before the winter weather season starts getting really nasty, make sure to stop at your local hardware or home improvement store. They will have all the basic things you need to help you stay ahead of the storm, from heavy duty shovels to weather radios and all the de-icing equipment you can use to stay ahead of winter’s icy grip. Finally, make sure you are getting your forecast from a credible source. Winter is always cold, so do not call it a polar vortex, a bomb cyclone or anything else that might cause panic about our weather. Winter can be icy and dangerous, so plan ahead. Get those winter coats, gloves, hats and scarves out of the closet and get ready to bundle up for the long season ahead. Stay safe and warm this upcoming winter season.
