Cold Front Coming Through Wednesday

Weather Update – 10:30 p.m. – Tuesday, September 3rd

For the first time in 2019, today marks the 7th day in a row without rain in West Tennessee. On average, we have 7 to 8 weeks out of the year of 7 consecutive, rain-free days but this is the longest it’s been that we’ve been without a dry week in any given year in Jackson’s recorded climatology. A cold front will move through West Tennessee tomorrow bringing a slight chance for rain with an opportunity for another taste of Fall soon to follow!

TONIGHT
Mostly clear skies will continue in West Tennessee tonight while Hurricane Dorian continues to pound the East Coast of Florida with storm surge, strong winds, and inland flooding from heavy rainfall. See below for an update from the National Hurricane Center. Our temperatures will drop to the mid 60s by sunrise with a cold front coming through the area tomorrow to provide us with a slight chance for rain.

We’ll start out sunny Wednesday morning with skies becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon and evening accompanied by a slight chance for rain. Temperatures will warm up to the lower and middle 90s in the afternoon but it’ll be cooler on Thursday with a nice taste of Fall in the forecast for a couple of days! Stay with WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News for the latest forecast temperatures including an update on Hurricane Dorian and keep up with Storm Team Weather online too for more updates.

TROPICAL UPDATE from the National Hurricane Center – 10:00 p.m. – Tuesday, September 3rd

At 10:00 p.m. CDT, the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 79.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph and a slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected through early Wednesday. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through Wednesday night. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next couple of days, and Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Grand Bahama Island and along the Treasure Coast of Florida for a few more hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within the Tropical Storm Warning area in north Florida and Georgia by early Wednesday.

Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas Wednesday, with hurricane conditions by Wednesday night.

STORM SURGE: Water levels should very slowly subside on Grand Bahamas Island and the Abaco Islands through tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

• Savannah River to Cape Lookout NC…4 to 7 ft
• Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River…3 to 5 ft
• Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers…3 to 5 ft
• Jupiter Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL…2 to 4 ft
• Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads…2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday:

• Northwestern Bahamas…Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals over 30 inches.
• Coastal Carolinas…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
• Atlantic Coast from Sebastian, Florida to the Georgia, South Carolina border…3 to 6 inches.
• Far southeast Virginia…3 to 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east coast of Florida during the next several hours. This risk will shift to along the immediate coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas on Wednesday into Thursday.

Tom Meiners
Storm Team 7 Chief Meteorologist, CBM
Twitter – @WBBJ7TomMeiners
Facebook – http://facebook.com/WBBJ.tom.meiners
Email – tmeiners@wbbjtv.com