Rain Chances Return Later this Week, Frost/Freeze Likely Next Week!

WBBJ 7 Forecast Update:

October 25, 2023

Joel Barnes,

WBBJ 7 Forecast Update:

Warmer and mild weather will stick around tonight and for your Thursday. Rain chances look to kick back up on Friday and Saturday but it won’t be enough that you should cancel your plans. A more powerful system will pass Sunday night into Monday bringing some heavy rain and our first frost/freeze of the season behind the front. Catch the full forecast and latest on the rain and freeze chances where you live, coming up here.

TONIGHT:

We saw another warm day with a chance of record highs again on Wednesday. The record was 83° and highs reached above 80° in the afternoon but we feel just short again on Wednesday. We did see mostly sunny skies although there was a few clouds at times during the day. It was a bit breezy again with the winds staying out of the south all day long. Wednesday night lows will be warm and fall down into the low 60s. The weather was more summer-like than fall on Wednesday. Again, rain is NOT in the forecast tonight or Thursday.

THURSDAY:

We will pick up our first chance for rain this week on Thursday but most of us will not see much until Friday. Chances will be best near the Mississippi River as a stalled out boundary near Arkansas is forecast to move to the east as the day progresses. Rain chances only sit at 10%. Highs on Thursday will make it up to the low 80s again with the record being 87°, so we will miss it on Thursday. Thursday will be a partly cloudy day with the winds staying out of the south. Thursday night lows will fall down to the mid 60s due to the higher dew point Thursday night.

FRIDAY:

Friday will bring our best shot for rain during the work week but chances are only around 30-40%. The system that will be stalled out just to our west most of the week will finally pass through on Friday. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out but we are not expecting big storms if we see much for storms at all. We are forecast to see partly to mostly cloudy skies during the day. Highs on Friday will top out in the low to mid 80s. Friday looks to be our best shot at hitting the record, which is 85° set back in 1950. Friday night lows will only dip down to the mid 60s making for a warm start to the weekend.

THE WEEKEND:

We will see some isolated shower activity on Saturday, but we are not expecting much and the shower should clear out late Saturday and stay dry on Sunday until late Sunday night. It will again be a warm weekend with the highs reaching the low 80s on Saturday and mid to upper 70s on Sunday. We could hit or tie another record on Saturday which is 85° but will probably fall short. We will see a few more clouds on Saturday than Sunday but in general, expect a partly cloudy weekend. The winds will come out of the south or southwest all weekend long as well helping to keep the temperatures up. Weekend morning lows will stay in the low 60s. The winds will look to chance back to the north on Monday.

NEXT WEEK:

A much more significant system is on the way early next week that will look to impact your plans for Halloween. Rain is coming early Monday but will look to clear out in time for trick-or-treating on Tuesday. It might be a good idea to do some Halloween stuff with the kids this weekend just in case the weather is NOT as great on Halloween night next Tuesday.

We could be looking at much cooler weather behind the front next week and our first frost of the season is looking highly likely next week. There will also be a shot at our first freeze Halloween night into Wednesday morning where some 20s cannot be ruled out as of now. The winds will come out of the north early in the week and we should see plenty of sunshine during the middle of the week but it is going to be a very cold week in general.

West Tennessee really needs the rain as we have been extremely dry the last 8 weeks. Jackson has only recorded 1/10″ of the rain we usually get for the first half of October and are now over 3.0″ below on the yearly average! Over the last 8 weeks, Jackson has only seen 1.32″ of rain when we average close to 8″ on a normal year during those 8 weeks.

FINAL THOUGHT:

We should be dry most of the week in West Tennessee but will pick up a decent shot from Thursday night through Saturday. A cold front will come crashing through again early next week and looks to bring some rain showers with it and potentially a few weak storms. Above average weather will also stick around for the entire forecast with no frost possible until next week. There looks to be a decent shot for some frost or maybe even the first freeze next week. The tropics look to be relatively quiet but we are not quite done yet with hurricane season as we are watching a potential storm in the southern Gulf of Mexico. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.