Two Rounds of Heavy Rain Coming for West Tennessee!
WBBJ 7 Forecast Update
WBBJ 7 Forecast Update:
Jackson ended up with an above normal year for the temperature but a well below normal year in the rain department. Good news is there are a few rounds of heavy rain showers on the way in the forecast, bad news is, it is going to remain cold into next week. Cold weather will be sticking around all week with highs staying in the 40s and morning lows in the 20s until the middle of the weekend. Find out if we are going to be cold enough for a wintry mix or snow to show up with the cold rain coming up here.
2023 RECAP:
After a wet start to 2023, the last 4-5 months were significantly below normal leading to a yearly deficit of -13.56″ below average. The temperatures on the year were above normal for both the high and low temperatures. Jackson ended up 1.8° up per day on the high and 0.8° above normal on the low. Jackson set 13 temperature and rain records in 2023 and the average wind speed was 6 MPH.
The year started out very warm but we had a cooler spring and a slightly below normal summer in Jackson. We saw a very warm fall as well as December, which was well above normal as well. Overall, that added up to a warmer than normal year for all of West Tennessee. A little over 1.5° higher than a normal year.
The year also started out quite wet in January, but after a drier than normal end to winter and start to Spring, we ended up being below normal heading into Summer. Summer brought us back up above normal on the year before an extremely dry fall and start to winter put us under a foot of rain by the end of the year compared to a normal year.
Last year we saw below normal rainfall as well but a wetter December in 2022, brought the rain deficit back up to around 1/2 foot below normal compared to a foot below in 2023. This makes 2 years in a row with below normal precipitation across West Tennessee.
TONIGHT:
A low pressure system passed to the south of us on Wednesday and that kept the clouds most of the day before clearing out late into the evening behind a cold front that will pass tonight. There were a few sprinkles and flurries reported Wednesday but most of us missed out on the showers from the system. The winds varied in direction as times as the low pressure system moved away from the Mid South. As the late front passes, the winds will come out of the northwest tonight. It was a cold day with highs reaching the upper 40s and Wednesday night lows will again fall to the mid 20s. Rain is not in the forecast tonight.
THURSDAY:
We are expecting plenty of sunshine on Thursday but it will be another cool day. Highs on Thursday are forecast to again be in the mid 40s with Thursday night lows falling down to the mid 20s. Temperatures will be below all week long in Jackson. The winds will come out of the northeast again behind Wednesday night’s weak front. Rain will look to stay away from the region on Thursday.
FRIDAY:
The best chances for rain showers or maybe a wintry mix will be on the way as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend. Rain chances will increase during the evening and rain looks like Friday night. Chances for anything but rain looks pretty low as of now. Rain chances on Friday are 80% across our area.
Highs on Friday will reach the upper 40s but it is Friday night’s low temperature that we need to keep a very close eye on this week. The forecast low now is 37° which is too warm for a wintry mix. If that drops to 34-35° we could see a brief wintry mix but that looks unlikely. Showers will continue into Saturday morning. As of now, cold rain looks to be the most likely outcome with these systems for us.
THE WEEKEND:
Cold rain showers and a very brief wintry mix could be coming down early Saturday in West Tennessee. The showers will move out by Saturday afternoon. We could see a few lingering showers on the back side of the system on Sunday, but we are not overly confident in chances for precipitation on Sunday. The forecast for showers on Saturday morning though is already at 70% and most likely will increase as the weekend gets closer.
Highs on Saturday will only reach the upper 40s and Saturday night lows will fall down to the mid to upper 30s. Sunday highs will reach up to around 50° before we finally warm up back above 50° for most of us by next Monday. The winds will vary in direction this weekend as the low pressure system moves through. Expect a cloudy day Saturday with some potential sunshine breaking through on Sunday.
NEXT WEEK:
A more potent storm system looks to be heading our way late Monday and impacting our Tuesday next week as well. Cold rain showers are on the way for everyone but we cannot rule out a few storms or even a wintry mix as of now. A widespread inch of rain will be possible front Monday evening through Tuesday evening. The system should clear out in time to bring the sun back on Wednesday. Highs next week will start in the low to mid 50s with morning lows staying above freezing. We will be watching that system very closely as it gets closer due to the intensity of the low pressure system according to long term forecast model guidance.
FINAL THOUGHT:
We are going to pick up a slight chance for a wintry mix Friday night into Saturday for all of West Tennessee. A couple degrees higher or cooler than the forecast of 37° could determine what falls down and for who that will most likely impact. There looks to be a more significant system coming early next week. We are going to be watching forecast trends very closely this week and weekend and you should as well so you are prepared for what we could see coming down on Friday night and early next week.
For tips on preparing for the storms, click here. To download the WBBJ 7 Weather app, click here.
Storm Team Chief Meteorologist
Joel Barnes
Facebook: @JoelBarnesWeather
Twitter: @JoelBarnes13
Instagram: @joelbarnes13
