Rain Coming Friday Evening, Bigger System Coming Early Next Week
Friday Morning Update
WBBJ 7 Forecast Update
A cold winter start this morning in the lower 20s and clouds are moving in with our next rain maker. The rain will start in the afternoon and move east during the evening and stick around into Saturday morning. Temperatures will be a few degrees to warm for anything but rain. The following system early next week looks a little bit more interesting. We will let you know if we are thinking next week’s system will bring a chance for snow or severe weather, coming up right here.
2023 RECAP:
After a wet start to 2023, the last 4-5 months were significantly below normal leading to a yearly deficit of -13.56″ below average. The temperatures on the year were above normal for both the high and low temperatures. Jackson ended up 1.8° up per day on the high and 0.8° above normal on the low. Jackson set 13 temperature and rain records in 2023 and the average wind speed was 6 MPH.
The year started out very warm but we had a cooler spring and a slightly below normal summer in Jackson. We saw a very warm fall as well as December, which was well above normal as well. Overall, that added up to a warmer than normal year for all of West Tennessee. A little over 1.5° higher than a normal year.
The year also started out quite wet in January, but after a drier than normal end to winter and start to Spring, we ended up being below normal heading into Summer. Summer brought us back up above normal on the year before an extremely dry fall and start to winter put us under a foot of rain by the end of the year compared to a normal year.
Last year we saw below normal rainfall as well but a wetter December in 2022, brought the rain deficit back up to around 1/2 foot below normal compared to a foot below in 2023. This makes 2 years in a row with below normal precipitation across West Tennessee.
TONIGHT:
We saw sunshine on Thursday but it will be another cold day for all of West Tennessee. Highs on Thursday only reached the low to mid 40s with Thursday night lows falling down to the mid 20s again. Temperatures were below normal all week long in Jackson. The winds came out of the northeast again behind Wednesday night’s weak front and will turn calm again tonight. Clouds will move back in tonight and expect a mostly cloudy start to your Friday. Rain will look to stay away from the region on Thursday night before returning on Friday.
FRIDAY:
The best chances for rain showers this week will be on the way as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend. Rain will move across the Mississippi River during the afternoon and will increase during the evening and heavy rain looks likely Friday night. Chances for anything but rain looks pretty low as of now. Rain chances on Friday are 90% across our area. Wintry mix or snow will likely miss us again this go around, but next week could be a different story.
Highs on Friday will reach the upper 40s but it is Friday night’s low temperature that we need to keep a very close eye on. The forecast low now is 38° which is too warm for a wintry mix. If that drops to 34-35° we could see a brief wintry mix but that looks unlikely. Showers will continue into Saturday morning. As of now, 1/2″ of cold rain looks to be the most likely outcome with this system for us.
THE WEEKEND:
Cold rain showers could linger overnight and still be coming down early Saturday morning in West Tennessee. The showers will move out by Saturday afternoon. We could see a few lingering showers on the back side of the system on Sunday, but we are not overly confident in chances for precipitation on Sunday and sit at 20%. The forecast for showers on Saturday morning though is around 40% and will be moving to the east early in the day on Saturday.
Highs on Saturday will only reach the upper 40s and Saturday night lows will fall down to the mid to upper 30s. Sunday highs will reach up to around 50° before we finally warm up back above 50° for most of us by next Monday. The winds will vary in direction this weekend as the low pressure system moves through. Expect a cloudy day Saturday with some potential sunshine breaking through on Sunday.
NEXT WEEK:
A more potent storm system looks to be heading our way late Monday and impacting our Tuesday next week as well. Cold rain showers are on the way for everyone but we cannot rule out a few storms or even a wintry mix as of now. A widespread inch of rain will be possible front Monday evening through Tuesday evening. This will be a potent storm system and will bring strong winds to the Mid South. Expect a wind advisory to be issued for Tuesday when the system gets a little closer.
Rain showers will impact everyone but the big question with next’s system, will it bring a wintry mix or snow to West Tennessee. The main factors determining if that will happen will be first, how long the showers will be sticking around for Tuesday night. The later they last into Wednesday morning, the better shot for some show. Secondly, how cold will the air be on the backside of the low pressure system as it moves to the east overnight into Wednesday morning. Both these factors will determine if we only get a cold rain, a wintry mix or even an inch or two of snow. We should know more over the weekend.
The system should clear out in time to bring the sun back on Wednesday. Highs next week will start in the low to mid 50s with morning lows staying above freezing. We will be watching that system very closely as it gets closer due to the intensity of the low pressure system according to long term forecast model guidance.
FINAL THOUGHT:
We are going to pick up a slight chance for a wintry mix Friday night into Saturday for all of West Tennessee but a better chance for that early next week. A couple degrees higher or cooler than the forecast of 38° could determine what falls down and for who that will most likely impact Friday night. There looks to be a more significant system coming early next week. We are going to be watching forecast trends very closely this week and weekend and you should as well so you are prepared for what we could see coming down on Friday night and again early next week.
For tips on preparing for the storms, click here. To download the WBBJ 7 Weather app, click here.
Storm Team Chief Meteorologist
Joel Barnes
Facebook: @JoelBarnesWeather
Twitter: @JoelBarnes13
Instagram: @joelbarnes13
