1st Round of Storms Tonight, More Significant Threat Wednesday Night

WBBJ 7 Forecast Update

May 7, 2024

Joel Barnes,

WBBJ 7 Forecast Update:

So far the cap is holding up in West Tennessee. But around 9:30pm, we have finally seen a few showers begin to pop up. Storms will likely remain in check for the next few hours, but will increase and intensity and coverage overnight. There will be no cap tomorrow night by the way. Although a few severe storms are still possible tonight, the main event is still on track for late Wednesday for us. If you are wondering, basically a “CAP” is a layer of relatively warm air aloft, usually several thousand feet above the ground, which suppresses or delays the development of thunderstorms.

Some storms are going to try to develop tonight after 10pm and stick around into Wednesday morning. Some could be strong or severe tonight. We will get a break most of the day on Wednesday before the main severe threat comes through between 9pm-3am Wednesday night. Severe weather seems very likely with gusty winds coming for sure. There still could be a few tornadoes, potentially strong ones too and some large hail; so please stay weather aware not only tonight, but no doubt tomorrow night when the worst of it comes through.

TONIGHT:

Skies will be mostly cloudy tonight, but we saw the sun pop out in the afternoon and evening helping to warm us up today. Highs reached the low to mid 80s due to the breezy southwest winds and sunshine Tuesday night lows will fall down to around 70°. Rain chances on Tuesday night are 60% as of now and will be increasing between 2 and 4am.

There will be some showers and storms moving back in later tonight after 10pm and becoming stronger overnight. We are under a level 1 and 2 for severe storms tonight. Although a tornado or two will be possible, some gusty winds appear to be the most likely outcome from the overnight storms tonight.

WEDNESDAY:

Some early morning storms are likely before the sun comes up on Wednesday. A few may linger into the mid morning but we are expecting to be dry for most of the day while the sun is up. Wednesday is going to be a warm, breezy and humid day that will set the stage for a round of severe storms Wednesday night. All of West Tennessee is under a level 3 (enhanced risk) for severe storms and a potential upgrade to a level 4 seems quite possible as of now.

The threat could start as early as 8pm and last until 5am Thursday morning. The time frame most likely to be impacted by these strong storms is going to be between 10pm-2am Wednesday night. Straight line winds are highly likely and a few tornadoes are also possible out in front of the main line in the late evening hours. Highs on Wednesday will reach the mid to upper 80s. Expect partly cloudy skies and breezy southwest winds that will increase late in the day. Rain chances Wednesday night is 80% as of now.

THURSDAY:

Mostly cloudy skies will stick around Thursday morning but move out as the day goes on. The rain showers and storms will linger into the early morning hours but the storm threat should move out around sunrise. Although not likely, there could be a few lingering showers that could impact the 10am parade in Humboldt but we are expecting a dry afternoon and evening on Thursday. Thursday will be a little cooler behind the morning front and highs will make it up to around 80° but fall down to the low 50s Thursday night. The winds on Thursday will come out of the northwest behind the front. Chances for rain is 40% Thursday morning in West Tennessee.

FRIDAY:

Friday is looking like the best day of the week in West Tennessee. Rain is not in the forecast and it will not be overly hot or humid. The winds on Friday are forecast to come out of the north allowing high temperatures to only reach up to around 70°. Friday night will also be a tad cool with temperatures falling down to around 50° to kick off the weekend. We should also see plenty of sunshine on Friday and expect mostly sunny skies.

THE WEEKEND:

Another system may try to move through on Saturday but most of the storms and heavier rain will likely stay just to the north of West Tennessee. Chances for rain as of now on Saturday are 10%. Highs on Saturday will try to rebound back to the mid 70s and the winds will come out of the west. Saturday night lows will drop down to the mid 50s. Sunday could be a little warmer but it will depend on if the front on Saturday moves through our area or stays to the north. The current forecast for Sunday is highs in the mid to upper 70s and Sunday night lows dipping down to the upper 50s. Sunday looks dry as of now and the winds will remain out of the west. A warm up might be returning into next week as well with 80s back by next Monday and southwest winds. Rain chances look to come back early next week to West Tennessee.

FINAL THOUGHT:

The greatest threat for severe weather in West Tennessee this Spring looks to be on the way Wednesday night. Although a few severe storms may develop Tuesday night, there are not going to be anywhere near as concerning as the ones coming in Wednesday night. We are going to see below normal temperatures behind the front that will probably stick around through the weekend. If you plan on heading to the Strawberry Festival this week, please monitor the weather forecast before you head out to avoid running into any potential severe weather.