Showers & Storms to Kick Off the Work Week

WBBJ 7 Forecast Update

May 13, 2024

Joel Barnes,

WBBJ 7 Forecast Update:

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Storms are firing up southwest of Memphis and are tracking to the northeast. Heavy rain, lightning and some gusty winds will be possible. We are under a marginal (1/5) risk tonight, so the severe threat is relatively low but not zero. More storms are likely on Tuesday as well.

A slow moving low pressure sitting near Kansas City will track east over the next 24 hours. It will bring some spotty rain showers this evening and a few non severe storms tonight. There will be more storms and showers moving through on Tuesday before we dry out for the middle of the week. Find out our chances of severe weather on Tuesday and catch a first look into the upcoming weekend’s forecast coming up right here.

Water levels are running high across West Tennessee but only partially due to the rain we have seen over the last week. Upstream dams on Tennessee and Mississippi Rivers have been opened and the water levels will stay high this week. According to the TRV they are moving a large amount of water across the main stem of the Tennessee River. TVA is spilling water at all 9 dams on the Tennessee River to move as much water as they can as quickly as possible to reduce future flooding potential later this month.

TONIGHT:

Cloudy skies have been hanging around all day on Monday and that will continue tonight. Some spotty showers have been popping up all day and that will continue tonight. There is a chance for some thunderstorms to mix in later tonight as a cold front and low pressure system begin to move across West Tennessee. Areas west of Jackson are under a level 1 (marginal risk) for storms tonight. Severe weather is not likely, but a gusty storm or two cannot be ruled out overnight. The winds will stay light out of the southeast and overnight lows will fall down to the mid 60s to kick off our Tuesday. Rain chances are 70% tonight across our area.

TUESDAY:

Rain showers and thunderstorms appear to be likely on Tuesday before clearing out late in the day. We are under a marginal risk for severe storms (level 1/5) during the day. We are likely going to be under the clouds all day long so do not expect to see much of the sun.

The cloudy skies and rain showers will keep high temperatures down during the afternoon. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s and fall down to the low 60s Tuesday night. The winds are forecast to be light and come out of the southwest. Rain chances are 80% on Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY:

The early week system should clear out for our Wednesday and that late week system is not expected to impact our weather until late in the day on Thursday. So we will be in a transition period here in West Tennessee. Skies will try to clear out into the afternoon making for a mostly sunny evening. The winds are forecast to come out of the northwest keeping high temperatures in check in the upper 70s again. Wednesday night lows will fall down to around 60°. Rain chances are below 10% on Wednesday.

THURSDAY:

Thursday is going to start out mostly sunny but clouds will build back in late in the day. Showers and storms will be possible as well during the back half of the day with chances increasing overnight into Friday morning. The winds on Thursday will transition back to the southwest allowing us to warm back up into the low to mid 80s. The humidity will also climb some on Thursday setting the stage for some storms to return Thursday night. Chances for rain on Thursday is 40% as of now.

FRIDAY:

Like Tuesday earlier this week, showers and storms are expected to impact almost all of our viewing area. Friday is also going to be a mostly cloudy day but skies will try to clear out late Friday night into the upcoming weekend. As of now, the severe weather threat appears to be low but we will be watching the late week system closely as the week progresses. The winds on Friday will come out of the south but the clouds and showers will only allow highs to reach the upper 70s. If we get the skies to clear, some 80s will be possible. Friday night lows will fall down to the low 60s again. Rain chances on Friday currently sit at 60%.

THE WEEKEND:

Forecast models are sending out some mixed messages this weekend but most are suggesting a quiet and mild weekend for West Tennessee. We will likely see more sun than clouds but that could change as the forecast becomes more clear. Highs this weekend will make it back into the low to mid 80s with overnight lows falling to the mid 60s. A low pressure system may pass to the south and some of the outer back could bring a few showers on Sunday, but we are not confident in that scenario playing out as of now. The wind direction this weekend will come out of the west for the most part and be light.

FINAL THOUGHT:

We have seen close to normal amounts of rainfall so far this spring in West Tennessee after a wet start to the year according to the rain gauge out of the Jackson airport. More rain is in the forecast this week and could come in two rounds as two different systems look to impact our weather this week. Highs will be close to normal and so will our overnight lows. Severe weather cannot be ruled out but overall the threat looks pretty low for us this week. We will be watching storm trends though as well as tracking everything on the radar this week as it moves through.