Another Dry Day Ahead Before The Storms Arrive Halloween

PM Tuesday Weather Update

October 29, 2024

Brian Davis,

We just finished up another sunny and warmer day but not quite as warm as yesterday when we tied a 2016 record of 85° for the high. Today, we made it to 82 and we’ll once again be in the lower 80s for tomorrow. The surface high will remain just to our east which will continue to help usher in south winds ahead of a strong upper trough and associated cold front that will move our direction. Warm and slightly more humid air will continue to build into the midsouth through the day Wednesday.

Most of the rain will be entering the west Tennessee area by late Thursday morning and continuing into the afternoon and early evening, but a few showers could linger into Halloween night. Right now there is an enhanced risk for severe weather setting up in the 4 corners region as well as parts of the eastern Plains on Wednesday and with all the warmer air already in place, ultimately, some of the storms will make it into west Tennessee by Thursday. A few of them could be strong into Thursday afternoon.

As the result, we now have a “marginal risk” per SPC for a good part of west Tennessee for Thursday. We’ll want to be weather aware, especially late Thursday morning into mid afternoon.

At this time, mid range models have the bulk of the thunderstorms and heavy rain moving through from around 10 am (west).

to around Noon ( I-40 area)

There is the threat for small hail, gusty winds, lightning, and very heavy rain in the storms.

Storms will be approaching at 2 pm near the Tennessee River area. Although there will still be a severe weather threat, it is looking more possible that the heavy rain will be out of the area by the time a majority of the Halloween events get underway.

A few patches of drizzle or a light shower may linger longer into Halloween evening and it will be turning much cooler behind the front.

(Rain chances will be higher in the afternoon and early evening as seen below with lower chances towards the night time hours)

We are still a couple of days away so exact timing will likely drift slightly so keep up with StormTeam 7 for the very latest on the weather ahead for Halloween. The weekend will be mostly dry but much cooler around the area. Highs will only be in the upper 60s by Friday! We can expect mid 70s into Saturday and around 80 on Sunday. Another system looks to approach us again next Monday with a few showers.

Final Thoughts: We are heading into the secondary severe weather season for west Tennessee and we usually get some short lived spikes in warm weather followed by much cooler weather. The transition between the two usually isn’t peaceful this time year. As storms develop over the next few weeks, we’ll want to not fear and panic, but stay weather aware and keep up with the latest forecasts.