High Risk For Tornadoes Today, High Risk For Flooding This Week!

WBBJ 7 Forecast Update:

The highest risk on the scale for flooding has been issued for some counties in West Tennessee and most of us are now under a level 5/5 (HIGH) risk for severe storms on Wednesday. A supercell storm threat between 4-8pm and a straight line wind, spin up tornado and hail threat will continue late in the evening and into the day on Thursday.

The front will stall out and where it does, significant rain, over 10″ will be possible between Wednesday evening and Friday morning. The National Weather Service is calling this a generational flood event for some locations. Please start to keep a close eye on the weather starting around 4pm tomorrow. Catch the full details and forecast information.

This is a difficult forecast, depending on where the line sets up, you could see over 10″ of rain or less than an inch. The most likely areas for significant flooding will be along I-40 with the highest chances northwest of Gibson county. On top of the flood threat, severe weather including supercells are expected Wednesday after 4pm.

Watches and Warnings:

Supercells are the most difficult storms to forecast exactly when and where they are going to pop in the instability zone. There is a chance none break the “cap” tomorrow, but that is not the most likely case for us as of now. Any supercells that develop will likely produce tornadoes given the conditions and storm parameters that will be set up across West Tennessee Wednesday evening. According to the NWS in Memphis: GENERATIONAL FLOODING is anticipated this week as a cold front stalls over the I-40 corridor!!!

THIS WEEK:

After a stormy day on Sunday, things quieted down on our Monday and will remain quiet until Wednesday afternoon across West Tennessee. Starting Wednesday, the weather is going to take a turn for the worse and stay rough through the weekend. A flood watch is out, an moderate risk for severe weather on Wednesday, and more severe weather concerns on Thursday, Friday and Saturday as well. Please stay weather aware and monitor forecast information as it becomes available this week.

Temperatures Monday night were cool and fell down to around 40°. There was a chance for some frost up north, but there appears to be a much better chance for frost Monday morning NEXT WEEK.  Tuesday remained mostly sunny but the clouds and winds will both pick back up Tuesday night. Tuesday highs made it up to around 70° and Tuesday night lows will only fall down to around 60° due to the increase in clouds and southerly winds.

Wednesday is looking like the warmest day of the spring so far but it will also be windy all day long, even before the storms show up. The winds will come out of the south between 15-25 MPH and gusts will be as high as 50 MPH in the afternoon. We will see periods of sun and clouds before thick clouds move in during the evening. Highs on Wednesday will reach the mid 80s and Wednesday night lows will fall down to the mid 60s is all. A wind advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service during the day on Wednesday.

Storm chances will get going in the late afternoon and early evening hours and stick around overnight into Thursday morning. As of now, we are under a level 4/5 for most of us in West Tennessee. An upgrade to a level 5 cannot be ruled out at this time. All severe weather modes will be in play, that include very strong straight line winds, large hail, supercells and tornadoes. The greatest threat for tornadoes will be in the evening hours.

On top of the severe storm threat, a major concern for flooding will start Wednesday night and last through the week into the weekend. Several rounds of storms and heavy rain is forecast from Wednesday evening through Saturday night and could last into Sunday morning. Some areas are expected to see over 10″ of rain during that time frame. Flash flooding as well as river flooding seems highly likely at this time around the region.

Thunderstorms will continue Thursday morning along a stalled out boundary that will remain stationary for a few days. More storms and heavy rain is expected off and on Thursday night into Friday morning. Highs on Thursday and Friday will make it up around 80° and both nights overnight lows will fall to the mid 60s. If we get the sun to peak out on Saturday, we could reach the low to mid 80s that might fuel another round of severe weather. The winds will come out of the south until Sunday and then we are expecting mostly cloudy skies through the weekend as well.

THE WEEKEND:

Rain and storms are expected on Saturday and probably some severe weather. By Saturday, ground in West Tennessee will be extremely saturated and many rivers, creeks and streams will be running high. Any additional rainfall over the weekend will increase the flood threat across West Tennessee. The rain is expected to finally move out during the day on Sunday. As the front passes Saturday night, Sunday morning lows will fall into the mid 50s. Highs on Sunday will struggle to even hit 60°. Sunday night will be cool and we could see a frost Monday morning with morning lows expected to fall down to the mid 30s as of now to kick off next week. The sun may try to come out Sunday afternoon but we should see mostly sunny skies next Monday. The winds will change from the south on Saturday, to the west on Sunday and back to the northwest by Monday.

Brian Davis
Storm Team 7 Meteorologist
Twitter – @Brian7wbbj
Facebook – Briandaviswbbj
Email – Badavis@wbbjtv.com