AAA: Year-end holiday travel expected to set new record

NASHVILLE, Tenn., — AAA projects 122.4 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles from home over the 13-day year-end holiday period beginning December 20 and ending January 1. This year’s forecast is a 2.2% increase over 2024, surpassing last year’s record of 119.7 million travelers. View the full report.

“People are eager to travel this holiday season,” said Debbie Haas, Vice President of Travel for AAA – The Auto Club Group. “That’s leading to record numbers on the roads and in the skies. Our advice is to plan ahead. Book early, allow extra time to reach your destination, and think about travel insurance if you’re flying during winter weather. It’s the best way to protect both your trip and your peace of mind.”

National Holiday Travelers

• Total Travelers: 122.4 million (+2% / 2.7 million more than last year)
• Auto Travelers: 109.5 million (+2% / 2.1 million more than last year)
• Air Travelers: 8 million (+2% / 181,000 more than last year)
• Other Travelers (bus, train, cruise): 4.9 million (+9% / 407,000 more than last year)

Tennessee Holiday Travelers

• Total Travelers: 2.8 million (+2.2% / 61,395 more than last year)
• Auto Travelers: 2.6 million (+2% / 51,786 more than last year)
• Air Travelers: 76,613 (+2.4% / 1,805 more than last year)
• Other Travelers: 129,997 (+6.4% / 7,805 more than last year)

Holiday Travel Costs

According to AAA booking data:

• Domestic flights: Average $890 (up 7%)
• International flights: Average $1,400 (down 14%)
• Domestic hotel stays: Average $750 (up 13%)
• Rental cars: Average $635 (up 1%)

Year-End Travelers by Mode of Transportation

By Car: AAA projects 109.5 million Americans will travel by car for their year-end trips, an increase of 2% compared to last year. Driving is the overwhelming favorite among all modes of transportation because of its convenience and low cost. This year, 89% of holiday travelers will take road trips.

• Gas prices are lower than last year, with the national average dipping below $3 per gallon for the first time in four years.
• Safety reminders: December is National Impaired Driving Prevention Month. Designate a sober driver and avoid distractions.
• Vehicle prep: Check tires, battery, and fluids before hitting the road. AAA responded to more than 860,000 emergency roadside service calls during last year’s holiday.
• Slow Down, Move Over: Protect roadside workers and stranded motorists.

Car rentals: AAA’s car rental partner Hertz says Saturday, December 20 is expected to be the busiest pick-up day. The top 5 markets with the highest demand are Orlando, Los Angeles, Atlanta, Miami, and Phoenix. Small SUVs make up the most popular car rental class over the year-end holidays.

Air Travel Soars Above 8 million

AAA projects a record 8.03 million travelers, a 2.3% increase compared to last year. This will be the first time on record that the number of domestic air travelers over the year-end holiday period exceeds 8 million.

Domestic flights are 7% more expensive this year. According to AAA data, which is based on what travelers paid when they booked their holiday trips, the average ticket costs nearly $900.

The days leading up to Christmas Day are the most expensive, while flying on the holiday itself is cheaper. New Year’s flights are also pricey, with many people returning home on New Year’s Day or even squeezing one extra weekend out of the holiday season and coming back on Sunday, January 4.

Travel insurance is essential, especially when winter weather and heavy travel demand increases the risk of delays and cancellations. It helps offset unexpected costs associated with rebooking fees, lost luggage, and trip interruptions. For air travelers, this protection is especially valuable during peak holiday periods when flights are full and alternative options are limited.

Tips for Air Travelers

• Check flight status before leaving home and sign up for airline alerts.
• Arrive early: Allow at least two hours for domestic flights and three for international.
• Pack smart: Keep medications, chargers, and a change of clothes in your carry-on.
• Know your rights: Understand airline policies on rebooking and compensation.

AAA’s Year-End Top Destinations

The top holiday destinations listed below are based on AAA booking data for the year-end travel period. Warm destinations dominate the domestic side with travelers heading to Florida, Southern California, and Hawaii. Caribbean destinations and resort towns in Mexico are also popular to celebrate the year-end holidays and ring in 2026.

Best/Worst Times to Drive and Peak Congestion by Metro

Christmas week is forecast to be busier on the roads than New Year’s week, but both weeks will see days of increased traffic, according to INRIX, a provider of transportation data and insights.

• Interstates will be more congested the weekend before Christmas, as travelers hit the road on Saturday and Sunday ahead of the holiday.
• Friday, December 26 is also expected to be busy as travelers make moves post-Christmas Day.
• Because the year-end holiday travel period spans a longer time frame, travelers have more options for departures and returns.
• The holidays themselves – Christmas and New Year’s Day – typically have lighter traffic, but severe weather could create unexpected delays.

Please note the times listed below are for the time zone in which the metro is located. For example, Atlanta routes = ET and Los Angeles routes = PT.

Year-End Holiday Travel Period

AAA’s year-end holiday travel period always includes two weekends. This year, that travel window is defined as the thirteen-day period from Saturday, December 20 to Thursday, January 1.

Holiday Travel Forecast Methodology

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a unique methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes. The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from SPGMI’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. AAA and SPGMI have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000.

Historical travel volume estimates come from MMGY’s TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM. The PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. MMGY contacts over 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. The travel forecast presented in this report was finalized the week of November 17, 2025.

Because AAA holiday forecasts focus on domestic leisure travel only, comparisons to TSA passenger screening numbers should not be made. TSA data includes all passengers traveling on both domestic and international routes, whether traveling for work or leisure. Additionally, TSA screens passengers each time they enter secured areas of the airport, therefore each one-way trip is counted as a passenger tally. AAA focuses on person-trips, which include the full round-trip travel itinerary. As a result, direct comparisons of AAA forecast volumes and daily TSA screenings represent different factors.

INRIX Methodology

INRIX blends statistically grounded models with real-world road behavior to forecast travel conditions on the most heavily traveled routes across the U.S. during peak holiday periods. INRIX’s holiday traffic forecast combines pre-selected high-impact travel routes, rich multi-source traffic data, and a statistically robust linear regression model to generate detailed, time-specific travel delay predictions. INRIX’s data sources include a wide array of vehicle-based and infrastructure-based inputs. These include connected vehicle GPS data, mobile apps and navigation services, roadside sensors and cameras, and commercial fleet telematics. With expansive coverage, high temporal resolution, and historical context, this forecasting process provides essential insights for travelers, media, and agencies alike.

For more traffic stories, click here.