Active Weather Through the First Half of the Week

Tonight:

We’ll see temperatures drop down to the mid-40s as high pressure builds into the region. Skies will be clear and winds will be calm. Closer to sunrise, a light southerly breeze will kick up as some potential for thunderstorms moves into the area on Monday.

Monday:

Monday starts a stretch of active weather threats to West Tennessee. Monday afternoon could see some strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds along and south of I-40. The Storm Prediction Center has southern West Tennessee under a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5). The window for storms will be short given the small area of the region at risk for storm development. It’s possible storms will only be likely in the area between 12-4 PM.

Tuesday:

Tuesday we will be watching a system as it moves out of Mexico and across the southern US. As it progresses, severe weather will be most likely over the Southern Plains. We will begin to see this system move toward West Tennessee very late Tuesday evening. Confidence in impacts from the NWS Memphis and the Storm Prediction Center is low concerning Tuesday’s storms. Only about half of West Tennessee will be under a Marginal Risk (Level 1/5).

Wednesday:

Wednesday looks to be a more substantial severe weather day for West Tennessee than either Monday or Tuesday. It would appear the most likely scenario in the Mid-South is a mixed mode of supercells and a line of storms following. Over the next few days, we will pin down exactly when, where, and what can happen with Wednesday’s storm threat.

Prepare Now:

Replace batteries in your NOAA weather radios just in case. Have your plan in place for severe weather now. We’ll post updates as we get them, and we’ll be watching things much more closely.