Showers Ahead Saturday Evening, A Drier Day Sunday

WBBJ 7 Forecast Update

Rain moved out early Saturday morning and we are left with wet roads and foggy skies. Skies will remain cloudy today with a few showers returning in the evening. Temperatures will fall quickly in the evening and few remaining patches of drizzle may mix with some snowflakes before moving out of the area. A sun cloud mix will slowly return into Sunday. Our next rain maker will arrive late Monday.

24 Rainfall Estimates:

2023 RECAP:

After a wet start to 2023, the last 4-5 months were significantly below normal leading to a yearly deficit of -13.56″ below average. The temperatures on the year were above normal for both the high and low temperatures. Jackson ended up 1.8° up per day on the high and 0.8° above normal on the low. Jackson set 13 temperature and rain records in 2023 and the average wind speed was 6 MPH.

The year started out very warm but we had a cooler spring and a slightly below normal summer in Jackson. We saw a very warm fall as well as December, which was well above normal as well. Overall, that added up to a warmer than normal year for all of West Tennessee. A little over 1.5° higher than a normal year.

The year also started out quite wet in January, but after a drier than normal end to winter and start to Spring, we ended up being below normal heading into Summer. Summer brought us back up above normal on the year before an extremely dry fall and start to winter put us under a foot of rain by the end of the year compared to a normal year.

Last year we saw below normal rainfall as well but a wetter December in 2022, brought the rain deficit back up to around 1/2 foot below normal compared to a foot below in 2023. This makes 2 years in a row with below normal precipitation across West Tennessee.

SATURDAY:

The rain moves out for the morning as the low moves to our east. Skies will remain mostly cloudy through the day . Cold air will pour behind the main system tonight and we could see a couple of showers late day.

A few spotty showers may mix briefly with flurries before moving out all together late tonight.  Highs will only go to around 45 for the daytime high but a drop to the lower 30’s tonight.

SUNDAY:

Skies will gradually break away to partly cloudy skies into Sunday which should be our nicest day of the two. We’ll warm up to around 49 in the afternoon. Colder on Sunday night with mostly clear skies and lows around 27.

NEXT WEEK:

A more potent storm system looks to be heading our way late Monday and impacting our Tuesday next week as well. Cold rain showers are on the way for everyone but we cannot rule out a few storms or even a wintry mix as of now. A widespread inch of rain will be possible front Monday evening through Tuesday evening. This will be a potent storm system and will bring strong winds to the Mid South. Expect a wind advisory to be issued for Tuesday when the system gets a little closer.

Rain showers will impact everyone but the big question with next’s system, will it bring a wintry mix or snow to West Tennessee. The main factors determining if that will happen will be first, how long the showers will be sticking around for Tuesday night. The later they last into Wednesday morning, the better shot for some show. Secondly, how cold will the air be on the backside of the low pressure system as it moves to the east overnight into Wednesday morning. Both these factors will determine if we only get a cold rain, a wintry mix or even an inch or two of snow. We should know more over the weekend.

The system should clear out in time to bring the sun back on Wednesday. Highs next week will start in the low to mid 50s with morning lows staying above freezing. We will be watching that system very closely as it gets closer due to the intensity of the low pressure system according to long term forecast model guidance.

FINAL THOUGHT:

We are going to pick up a slight chance for a wintry mix Friday night into Saturday for all of West Tennessee but a better chance for that early next week. A couple degrees higher or cooler than the forecast of 38° could determine what falls down and for who that will most likely impact Friday night. There looks to be a more significant system coming early next week. We are going to be watching forecast trends very closely this week and weekend and you should as well so you are prepared for what we could see coming down on Friday night and again early next week.

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Brian Davis
Storm Team 7 Meteorologist
Twitter – @Brian7wbbj
Facebook – Briandaviswbbj
Email – Badavis@wbbjtv.com