Great Weekend in West TN! Active Tropics And Another Front Coming Next Week!

WBBJ 7 Forecast Update

October 18, 2024

Joel Barnes,

The next couple of mornings will continue to feel more like a Winter morning, but a warming trend will continue in the afternoon each day ahead. This morning started out in the upper 30s to lower 40s and Sunday morning will start out in the chilly lower 40s.

Summer like weather will make a return by next week. In the meantime, lower humidity and temperatures in the 70s will make for pleasant afternoons this weekend!

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Although I am not usually big on seasonal forecasts or extended climatology, I will still share the forecasts from NOAA for those of you that are interested. These long term forecast have been more accurate than not, but they are sometimes wrong as well, so I do not put a ton of faith in them.

May be a doodle of map and text that says 'Seasonal Temperature Outlook Valid: Dec-Jan-Feb 2024-25 Issued: October 17, 2024 NDRA Below Equal Chances Leaning Above Probability (Percent Chance) Above Below Normal Norrnal 33-40% 40-50％ Normal 33-40% 33-40% 40-50% 40-505 50-60% Likely Above Leaning Below Equal Chances 50-80% 50-70 Above 70-80% 80-90% 90- 1005 70-80% A0-00AL B0-00% Below 80-100%'

A slowly-developing La Nina is favored to influence conditions for the upcoming winter across most of the country, according to NOAA. This winter, they are predicting wetter-than-average conditions for the entire northern tier of the continental U.S., particularly in the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes region, along with northern and western Alaska. Meanwhile, drier-than-average conditions are expected from the Four Corners region of the Southwest to the Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic states. Their forecast for the Mid South appears to be near normal on precipitation and a little above average for temperatures.

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If you haven’t noticed the leaves are starting to change color here in West Tennessee. Our leaves usually begin to change during the 2nd week of October and will increase in color this month and usually peak around the first week of November. By looking outside, things look to be right on schedule here in West Tennessee for our fall of 2024.

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Leaves in East Tennessee begin to change color in early October and peak around the third week of the month. Figuring out when the fall colors will peak is tricky. Weather, moisture levels, and other factors determine the timing and the intensity of the colors. As a general rule, leaves in East Tennessee begin to change color in early October and peak around the third week of the month. Deciduous trees (those that lose their leaves annually) are usually bare by Thanksgiving. In Middle and West Tennessee, color change begins in mid-October and peaks by Halloween.

May be an image of map and text that says 'STORM TEAM WEATHER wbbjtv.com MINIMAL PATCHY EXPECTED FALL FOLIAGE TIMELINE WHEN CAN YOU EXPECT THE LEAVES to BEGIN TO CHANGE COLOR PARTIAL NEAR PEAK AT PEAK PAST PASTPEAK PEAK Courtesy of: smokeymountains.com com AUG. AUG.30 30 SEP 6 SEP 13 20 SEP SEP 27 OCT. 4 OCT.11 11 OCT OCT OCT.18 18 OCT.25 OCT 25 NOV. NOV. 8 NOV.1 15 NOV. 22'

THIS WEEK:

After another very nice weekend, like the previous weekend, a cold front came through late Sunday night and dropped temperatures close to 20° on Monday. Highs made it up to around 70° but that is as warm as the temperatures are going to be until Friday or possibly the weekend. Monday night was a cold night with lows falling into the low 40s, but Tuesday night was colder and Wednesday night will probably be colder than Tuesday night. Lows fell down to the mid 30s in the middle of the week and some of us even fell down to or below the freezing mark of 32°. Frost showed up for most of us in the middle of the week.

May be an image of map and text that says 'STORM TEAM WEATHER wbbjtv.com THE NEXT 48 HOURS Friday 4:00 PM HAN MIAED Kansas City St. Louis SNOW WARM Tulsa Louisville Charleston Jackson Little Rock Knoxville COLD Raleigh Atlanta Birmingham Jackson Dallas H BatonRouge Baton Rouge THE COLD WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT BY THE WEEKEND & SOME WARMER WEATHER WILL TRY TO MOVE BACK IN TO WEST TN'

As the front moved through on Tuesday we saw a few sprinkles but we didn’t see any of what I could call rain, maybe a couple spitting showers showed up. There were some clouds the pushed in on Tuesday as the front passed by, but the clouds broke up overnight. A few clouds lingered early Wednesday but we saw mostly sunny skies from Wednesday and that will last through Friday. Highs reached back into the low 70s on Friday but only reached the low to mid to upper 60s on Wednesday and upper 60s on Thursday.

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The winds kicked up on Tuesday as the cold front moved through. The winds were quite brisk and came out of the north between 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 25 mph. The winds weakened a bit on Wednesday but stayed out of the north. The winds will shifted to the east on Thursday and turned back to the southeast on Friday, which led to the temperatures climbing back up a bit. The humidity will stay low all week long though and that should keep the rain away. We have not recorded one drop of rain in West Tennessee so far for the month of October.

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THE WEEKEND:

Like the previous few weekends, the nicest weather of the week appears to be on the way for the weekend. The winds will come out of the south this weekend warming us back into the mid to upper 70s. We should fall short of 80° but some of us will get very close. Morning lows this weekend will still be a bit chilly. Saturday morning we will still be in the low to mid 40s but should be in the mid to upper 40s for both Sunday morning and again on Sunday night. Expect sunny skies for the most part but there will be a few clouds this weekend due to the fact the winds are forecast to come out of the south. We are not expecting any rain this weekend in our area!