Mid Teens Coming Tonight, Cold Rain Wednesday, Major Storm Possible this Weekend!
WBBJ 7 Forecast Update
WBBJ 7 Forecast Update:
Behind today’s cold front, temperatures are going to plummet tonight, all the way down to the mid teens by Tuesday morning. Tuesday is going to be a sunny day but another front is coming on Wednesday. The mid week system will just bring a cold rain with around 1/4″ of rain for most of us. Temperatures will be just a little too warm for any winter precipitation. Thursday will be the nicest day of the week up to 50° and take advantage of it to get your house and property ready for a potential huge winter storm this weekend. The potential for ice and large amounts of snow look possible from Friday night into Sunday morning. We will have the latest on the mid week system and the more on the weekend’s potential blockbuster storm coming up here.
Most of the focus today in the 7 Storm Team Weather Center has been on the potential weekend winter storm event across West Tennessee, but that is NOT the only exciting this going on. We have another chance at seeing the northern lights tonight across the Mid South as a G4 (Geomagnetic Storm Watch) has been issued for our area! G4 Levels were first reached at 1:38pm CST this afternoon and are forecast to stay strong most of the night. Best aurora is usually within an hour or two of midnight (between 10 PM and 2 AM). You should look to the northern sky, try to find a dark spot away from city lights.
If you are having trouble seeing them, take some photos on your cellphone to the north and they might show up giving you a better idea of where to look with your naked eye. A camera can keep its shutter open for several seconds (or longer in night modes) to collect much more light than the eye can in a split second. Good look tonight! If people are seeing them, we will make a post on our page for people to report and share what they are seeing later this evening and tonight!
A major storm looks to be on the way to impact the Mid South this weekend. Forecast models are showing the storm hitting Friday night and lingering into Sunday morning. This system has the potential of bringing significant amounts of snow and ice with it. The EURO model is showing the highest amount of snow cutting through West Tennessee and the highest ice amounts just south of West Tennessee. The GFS model has the highest snow amounts a little further south than the EURO model. It also has lower snow totals as well as the ice line further away from us in West Tennessee. The GFS also has a dry slot moving in quickly behind the system that could impact the amount of moisture available in our area to produce significant snow or ice.
As the week goes on and we get closer to the event, our more accurate short term forecast models will analyze the data. This will give us a better idea as far as total amounts of snow and ice as well as who is most likely going to get hit the hardest in the Mid South. Also, the timing could change some as well moving it in earlier in on Friday or not until later on Saturday. Overall, confidence is very high that some of us in the Mid-South of going to get nailed.
THIS WEEK:
Obviously most of the talk this week is going to be about the upcoming weekend’s potential major winter storm coming to the Mid South. We will have a lot more on that system as the week goes on but that is not the only System we will be dealing with this week. We had a cold front move through earlier and a few flurries will be possible this evening. By the morning, we will be falling down to the mid teens for most of West Tennessee. The wind chill will not be a factor tonight as we are expecting calm winds. The skies will be partly cloudy and break up closer to the morning.
Plenty of sunshine is coming for Tuesday and the winds will be calm in general for most of the day. Highs will reach the low 40s but it will be a brisk morning for sure. Bundle up the kids before they head back to school and keep the winter gear around for yourself as well. Tuesday night the winds will return to the southwest and that will keep our overnight lows up and falling down to the upper 20s.
The next system is coming in on Wednesday. There were some concerns late last week that the midweek system could bring some snow or a wintry mix our way but as of now, temperatures appear to be a little too warm for anything but a cold rain. We still can rule out a brief period of sleet or flurries but most of us will just end up seeing around 1/4″ of cold rain. Highs on Wednesday will warm back up to the mid 40s and Wednesday night lows will drop down to around 33°. The winds will start out of the southwest but turn to the northeast Wednesday night. Expect a mostly cloudy day on Wednesday.
The showers from Wednesday’s system should be gone by the time the sun comes up on Thursday. Thursday will be the nicest day of the week and you should take advantage of up and get your home affairs in order and make sure you are ready for a potential big winter storm this weekend. Highs on Thursday will make it up to around 50° and Thursday night lows will fall down to the low 30s by Friday morning. There will be some clouds in the morning and some sun in the afternoon before more clouds build in later in the day. We will call it a partly cloudy day on Thursday with the winds varying in direction as the day goes on.
The first half of the day on Friday looks decent and highs will reach up to the upper 30s to near 40°. We might see a bit of sun early in the day but overall we are looking at a mostly cloudy day on Friday. The winds will predominantly come out of the northeast on Friday and temperatures will drop quickly towards the back half of the day. We are expecting showers to move in late in the day. There is a chance we get a period of cold rain, before turning to a wintry mix and ice before transitioning to all snow overnight. Friday night lows should fall to the upper teens by the time we kick off your weekend.
THE WEEKEND:
There is the potential for a significant winter storm to impact the Mid South and West Tennessee this weekend. This system is going to bring heavy snow and ice with it. The areas that could see the most ice and the most snow are still up for discussion and we will be spending a lot of time this week analyzing the storm. Saturday is going to be wet with snow being the most likely culprit at this time because highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 20s on Saturday. The showers are expected to fall most of the day on Saturday before clearing out by Sunday morning. This system has the potential of bringing several inches of snow. The main area of concern for an ice storm, as of now, appears to be just south of West Tennessee, but obviously 4-5 days out, a lot can change in the forecast. Saturday night lows will fall down near 10° and Sunday highs will only reach the mid to upper 20s. The coldest air from the system is likely coming in Sunday night into Monday morning when the skies clear out and single digit temperatures seem likely at this time. Look for more updates during the week in the 7 Storm Team Weather Center as the system gets closer.
Storm Team Chief Meteorologist
Joel Barnes
Facebook: @JoelBarnesWeather
Twitter: @JoelBarnes13
Instagram: @joelbarnes13
