Major Winter Storm to Hit West Tennessee this Weekend!

WBBJ 7 Forecast Update

WBBJ 7 Forecast Update:

The system looks to be coming in two waves to West Tennessee. The first wave will show up just between midnight-3am Saturday and move out Saturday night between 9pm and midnight. We are confident in this round bringing morning snow that will transition to a mix and ice line lifting north during the day. Most of the snow will be north of I-40 from the original line with ice accumulations developing along and south of I-40. Some ice could mix in as far north as Kentucky in the evening hours from the first wave.
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The second wave is the real head scratcher. It will be showing up between midnight and 3am Sunday morning and move out between 9am and noon on Sunday. There’s a chance of the front lifting far enough north to get some some to mix in southeast of Madison. There is also a chance the snow/ice line lifts all the up to Kentucky and stays there for most of day on Sunday. This could also be more of a sleet maker on Sunday than freezing rain or snow. There is also one last shot at snow as the system clears out late in the morning as well and the front pushes back to the south. Sleet is better than freezing rain but we would all prefer snow I know.
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I have attached a image showing the different hazards we can encounter with 1/4″, 1/2″ and 1″ of ice. Any ice amount over 1/4″ can cause serious problems. I also attached an image showing where and why this forecast is challenging and where things might change.
May be an image of text that says 'Ice Storm Severity: Accumulation & Impact Progression 0.10" 0.25" 0.50" 1"+ (Trace (Trace/Glaze) / Glaze) (Disruptive) (Dangerous) (Devastating) Light glaze on roadways roadways&sidewalk & sidewalk Slick bridges Isolated power outages Coated windshields Widespread power outages Tree limbs/power limbs/ power lines sag Moderate damage to trees/power trees/ power lines Very destructive Long power outages Significant tree damage'
The biggest question I have, as well as what will have the biggest impact on how catastrophic this storm is in our area, will be how much of the mix is going to come as sleet and how much is going to come as freezing rain. There is a fine line in what causes sleet or freezing rain to fall and that fine line is going to be what makes or breaks this forecast for us and what could save us in the end.
May be an image of text that says 'STORM STORMTEAM TEAM WEATHER wbbjtv.com SNOW STORM VARIABLES Why Forecasting this Event is Extremely Challenging How far north the "warm nose" extends into West TN. It's a layer of warmer than freezing air sandwiched between two colder layers in the atmosphere SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN: sleet is more common in a deeper surface cold layer, while freezing rain is more common with a shallow surface cold layer Other factors include: how long of a break we get Saturday evening, when will the system move out on Sunday, any chance we get above freezing'
Areas in West Tennessee, depending on how far north you are, could end up with over a foot of snow or more and some areas could up with an inch of ice or more. Locations closer you are to the boot hill of Missouri will see the most snow and the closer you are to the Pickwick damn area, the more ice you are going to see. Areas along I-40 will likely see both snow and ice from the system. The magic temperatures looks to be around 15°. If you are cooler than 15°, the rain will have enough time to refreeze to produce snow. But if you are above 15°, the rain will NOT enough time to refreeze and will freeze when it hits the cold surface and stick as ice.
May be an image of map and text that says 'STORM STORMTEAM TEAM WEATHER wbbjtv.com STORM TEAM 7 WINTER FORECAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING TOTAL SNOW/SLEET 5-9" TOTALI TOTALICE ICE 0.10-0.25" Union Citye Tiptonville Martin Paris Oyersburg Trenton Ripley Alamo Huntingdon Gamden TOTAL SNOW/SLEET 3-7" TOTAL ICE 0.25-0.50" ackson Covington Brownsville Lexington Parsons Henderson Bolivar Somerville Memphis Selmer TOTAL SNOW/SLEET 1-4" TOTAL ICE 0.50-1.00"'
Trust me when I say this, you would rather have 12″ of snow than 1″ of ice. I really hope we see some changes in the forecast over the next 48 hours and we all get snow. Join us tonight at 5 on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News for the latest forecast information.
May be an image of map and text that says 'STORMTEAM WEATHER wbbjtv.com com WEATHER ALERT SUMMARY WEST TENNESSEE Union City Martin Paris Dyersburg Trenton WINTER STORM WARNING BENTONCFROLCROCETEFNETEG CROCKETTOYERFAYETEGEBSON CROCKETTDYER BENTON CARROLL HAYHOOOHENRYLAKELAUDERDALEADSO LAKE LAUDERDALE MADISON OBION HAYWOOD SHELBYTIPTONWEAKLE ICE STORM WARNING CHESTER DECATUR HARDEMAN HARDIN HE NDERSON MCNAIRY Camden Huntingdon Alamo UNTIL 6:00 PMSUN UNTIL 6:00 PM SUN Ripley Lexington Brownsville Jackson Parsons Covington Henderson Bolivar Somerville Memphis Selmer Savannah'
Here is an explainer as to how freezing rain develops and how it will even be possible with temperatures in the mid teens and 20s. But here are the Basics:
Snow to Rain: Snow forms high in clouds, but as it falls, it enters a layer of warmer air (above 32°F) and melts into rain.
Warm Air Layer: This warm layer can be a few hundred to a thousand feet thick.
Freezing Layer: Below the warm layer is a thin band of cold air (below 32°F) right at the surface.
Supercooling: The raindrops fall through this cold surface layer, getting chilled to near-freezing but not freezing in the air.
Freezes on Contact: When these supercooled raindrops hit surfaces like roads, cars, or power lines that are at or below freezing, they freeze immediately, forming a sheet of ice.
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Power outages are likely to happen in our area from the system. If you lose power in your home, you will likely lose access to your television. If that happens, know there are several ways online to continue to get your news/weather coverage from WBBJ! You can still watch us on these platforms:
Our WBBJ News & Weather Apps
Our WBBJ Website, select the live link
WBBJ Roku Streaming App
WBBJ on Apple TV
WBBJ’s YouTube Page
WBBJ NEWS/WEATHER Facebook Pages
May be an image of map and text that says 'STORM TEAM WEATHER wbbjtv.com SEVERE WEATHER ALERT SYSTEM WBBJ 7 EYEWITNESS STORM TEAM WEATHER APP Ways to Stay Informed if you lose power! WBB| WITNE NEWS Tropical Weather -WBBJ NEWS & WEATHER APPS -WBBJ WEBSITE www.wbbjtv.com -WBBJ ROKU STREAMING APP -WBBJ O APPLE TV -WBBJ YOUTUBE PAGE -WBBJ NEWS/WEATHER FACEBOOK Tropical Tracker Tropical Loop Forecast Path WEATHER TROPICAL STORM LAURA Fuelo กมเม BAT 量6'
If you lose power, know it is going to get VERY COLD as the system moves out. Many of us will be falling down below zero by Monday morning as the skies clear out. Please have a plan for you and your family if you lose power for an extended period of time from the winter storm.

THIS WEEK:

Thursday was the nicest day of the week and so hopefully you took advantage of it and got your home affairs in order and make sure you are ready for a potential big winter storm this weekend. Highs on Thursday made it up to around 50° and Thursday night lows will fall down to the low 30s by Friday morning. There will be some clouds in the morning and some sun in the afternoon before more clouds build in later in the day. It was a partly cloudy day on Thursday with the winds varied in direction as the day went on.

The morning on Friday looks decent but a cold front will pass early in the day. The front could bring a spitting shower or two, but we are not expecting much. Highs will only reach up to the upper 30s to near 40°. We might see a bit of sun early in the day but overall we are looking at a mostly cloudy day on Friday. The winds will predominantly come out of the northeast on Friday and temperatures will drop quickly towards the back half of the day. We are expecting showers to move in late in the day. There is a chance we get a period of cold rain, before turning to a wintry mix and ice before transitioning to all snow overnight. Friday night lows should fall to the upper teens by the time we kick off your weekend.

May be an image of map and text that says 'STORM TEAM WEATHER wbbjtv.com POTENTIAL PRECIP THIS WEEKEND Sunday 5:00 1.7" 1.6" Union City 1.7" Tiptonville Martin In general, 1" of precipitation, if all snow, is 10" of snow 1.9" Paris .7" Dyersburg 1.8" Trenton 1.8" Alamo 1.7" Ripley 2.2" 2.1" Huntingdon Camden 1.7" 1.6" Covington Brownsville 1.9" Jackson 1.7" Lexington 1.7" 1. Parsons 1.9" Henderson 2.0" Bolivar 2.2" Somerville 2.2" Memphis 2.3" Selmer 2.3" Savannah'

 

THE WEEKEND:

There is the potential for a significant winter storm to impact the Mid South and West Tennessee this weekend. This system is going to bring heavy snow and ice with it. The areas that could see the most ice and the most snow are still up for discussion and we will be spending a lot of time this week analyzing the storm. Saturday is going to be wet with snow being the most likely culprit at this time because highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 20s on Saturday. The showers are expected to fall most of the day on Saturday before clearing out by Sunday afternoon.

May be an image of map and text that says 'STORMTEAM WEATHER Wtejtu.com STORM TEAM 12:00円 청없포 WEATHER FUTURECAST, 5h.OW 19° 19" 23° STORMTEAN WEATHER wt.v.oom STORM TEAM WEATHER FUTURECAST 6.00AM ΑΡ SHEW 20° A monster of a winter storm is shaping up and will move through West Tennessee this weekend. The precipitation will move in between midnight and 6am Saturday morning and hang around for 36 hours before moving out late in the day on Sunday. Significant amounts of snow, sleet and freezing rain appears to be coming our way. 22° 22° STORMTEAM WEATHER wtbtha.com STORM TEAM 1200 PAIN 저번D WEATHER FUTURECAST 好丽 15° 15° 24" 24° 25"'

 

This system has the potential of bringing many inches of snow as well as crippling amounts of ice. The main area of concern for an ice storm, as of now, appears to be just south of I-40, but obviously 2-3 days out, a lot can change in the forecast. Saturday night lows will fall down near 10° and Sunday highs will only reach the mid to upper 20s. The coldest air from the system is likely coming in Sunday night into Monday morning when the skies clear out and below zero temperatures seem likely at this time. Look for more updates during the week in the 7 Storm Team Weather Center as the system gets closer.

May be an image of map and text that says 'STORM STORMTEAM TEAM WEATHER wbbjtv.com EXTENDED FUTURECAST MON 6:00 6:00AM AM RAIN MIXED Union City -11° SNOW Ridgely -10° Martin 11° Temperatures will fall down close to if not below zero by Monday morning. Be prepared for an extended cold period from Friday morning through Tuesday night. Paris -10° Dyersburg 10° Trenton -10° Huntingdon Hunting don -10° Camden 8° Ripley 8° Alamo -10° Brownsville -6° Covington -6° Lexing ton 2° Jackson -6° Parsons 2° Henderson -1° Somerville Memphis 2° Bolivar 2° Selmer 6° Savannah 4°'

 

Storm Team Chief Meteorologist

Joel Barnes
Facebook: @JoelBarnesWeather
Twitter: @JoelBarnes13
Instagram: @joelbarnes13

Categories: Weather, Weather Blog, Weather Forecast