Dangerous Winter Storm Imminent, Moving in Saturday Morning!
WBBJ 7 Forecast Update
WBBJ 7 Forecast Update:
Not much has changed in our forecast over the last 24 hours for us in West Tennessee. We are still expecting the snow totals to be highest in our northwest counties (Lake, Obion, Weakley Dyer) and the ice totals to be the highest in our southeast counties (Hardin, McNairy, Chester, Hardeman). That doesn’t mean we will not see dangerous amounts of ice (as high as 1/2″) along I-40 and the counties it runs through. Areas in the middle will likely see the highest amounts of sleet as well. Sleet has its own issues, but freezing rain (ice) is definitely worse. Do not underestimate how crippling that much ice can be to infrastructure. Prepare for LONG duration power outages, extreme cold, and impossible travel. DO NOT BE OUT ON THE ROADS UNLESS YOU HAVE TO BE!
I have attached a image showing the different hazards we can encounter with 1/4″, 1/2″ and 1″ of ice. Any ice amount over 1/4″ can cause serious problems. I also attached an image showing where and why this forecast is challenging and where things might change.
Areas in West Tennessee, depending on how far north you are, could end up with over a foot of snow or more and some areas could up with an inch of ice or more. Locations closer you are to the boot hill of Missouri will see the most snow and the closer you are to the Pickwick damn area, the more ice you are going to see. Areas along I-40 will likely see both snow and ice from the system. The magic temperatures looks to be around 15°. If you are cooler than 20°, the rain will have enough time to refreeze to produce snow. But if you are above 15°, the rain will NOT enough time to refreeze and will freeze when it hits the cold surface and stick as ice.
Trust me when I say this, you would rather have 12″ of snow than 1″ of ice. I really hope we see some changes in the forecast over the next 48 hours and we all get snow. Join us tonight at 5 on WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News for the latest forecast information.
Here is an explainer as to how freezing rain develops and how it will even be possible with temperatures in the mid teens and 20s. But here are the Basics:
Snow to Rain: Snow forms high in clouds, but as it falls, it enters a layer of warmer air (above 32°F) and melts into rain.
Warm Air Layer: This warm layer can be a few hundred to a thousand feet thick.
Freezing Layer: Below the warm layer is a thin band of cold air (below 32°F) right at the surface.
Supercooling: The raindrops fall through this cold surface layer, getting chilled to near-freezing but not freezing in the air.
Freezes on Contact: When these supercooled raindrops hit surfaces like roads, cars, or power lines that are at or below freezing, they freeze immediately, forming a sheet of ice.
Power outages are likely to happen in our area from the system. If you lose power in your home, you will likely lose access to your television. If that happens, know there are several ways online to continue to get your news/weather coverage from WBBJ! You can still watch us on these platforms:
Our WBBJ News & Weather Apps
Our WBBJ Website, select the live link
WBBJ Roku Streaming App
WBBJ on Apple TV
WBBJ’s YouTube Page
WBBJ NEWS/WEATHER Facebook Pages
If you lose power, know it is going to get VERY COLD as the system moves out. Many of us will be falling down below zero by Monday morning as the skies clear out. Please have a plan for you and your family if you lose power for an extended period of time from the winter storm.
THIS WEEK:
The morning on Friday was decent but a cold front will pass during the day dropping everyone below freezing by the evening hours. The front could bring a spitting shower or two, but we are not expecting much. Highs only reached up to the mid to upper 30s. Overall we saw a mostly cloudy day on Friday. The winds predominantly came out of the northeast on Friday and temperatures will drop quickly towards overnight before the winter system gets here. We are expecting showers to move in late in the night into Saturday morning. Friday night lows should fall to the upper teens by the time we kick off your weekend.
THE WEEKEND:
Not much has changed in the timing of the event either. The storm will move into overnight tonight and start as snow Saturday morning. For most of us, Saturday morning will be our best shot at accumulating snow. As the day goes on Saturday, the freezing rain line will move north as temperatures warm up a bit during the day. It looks like 20° is the magic number for Saturday. Over 20° is freezing rain or sleet, under 20° is going to be snow.
Sunday is still the more challenging part of the forecast. As of now Sunday appears to be a mostly sleet and freezing rain maker for us in West Tennessee. The closer you are to Kentucky, the better chances for you to add to your snow totals from what comes in on Sunday. Another question on Sunday is how much is going to come down as sleet and how much is going to come down as freezing rain. That will ultimately determine the severity of the ice storm that hits us. Most of us might get one last round of snow showers Sunday in the late morning or afternoon as the system clears out and cold air moves back in behind the storm.
Once the system moves out, the cold is going to dig in deep and stick around for several days. Temperatures will fall down to around 0° for both Sunday and Monday nights. On top of that, the winds will be steady as well and that will put the feels like temperatures between -10° and -20° at times too. Please stay inside starting Friday night and make sure you have what you need to survive for a few days. Some areas could be snowed and iced in until the middle of next week.
Storm Team Chief Meteorologist
Joel Barnes
Facebook: @JoelBarnesWeather
Twitter: @JoelBarnes13
Instagram: @joelbarnes13
