Difficulties of Predicting Wintry Weather
This video is no longer available.
JACKSON, Tenn.– Damp, dreary and icy conditions continue for much of West Tennessee. Meteorologist Ben Schott with the National Weather Service, Memphis said conditions like this present unique difficulties in creating an accurate forecast. It is tough to determine just how much ice or snow will come out of a winter system. “It is very difficult to forecast the type of precipitation that we have here in the Mid-South for lots of different reasons,” Schott said. Factors such as terrain and timing of a storm system play a key role in seeing rain or snow. The biggest component is the location of the storm since this determines where the cold air that is needed for snow and warm air needed for rain or sleet will occur. “We tend to be almost always right on that battleground. We are in the day and that’s why it creates a difficulty,” Schott said. The battleground Schott is talking about actually set up across the region today. It is a tug-of-war battle between warm and cold air, making it tough to determine who will see snow and who will see rain. Forecasters use a toolkit of weather models and knowledge to help you prepare. “Sometimes you hear things talked about the GFS Model or the European Model. We look at all of these, they all have say built in error because unfortunately we can’t model the atmosphere perfectly,” Schott said. The VIPIR 7 Storm Team will use these models and forecasting techniques to monitor current conditions as well as the chance of more wintry weather for the weekend ahead.
