Expect Heavy Rain and Windy Weather on Saturday from Delta
Weather Update – 10:45 p.m. – Friday, October 9th
Bring out the umbrellas! West Tennessee is about to have a wet weekend with off-and-on rain from tonight through Sunday. Category 2 hurricane Delta officially made landfall near Creole, Louisiana with estimated maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. It is the 10th system to collide with the continental United States this year – the most on record for any given season. We’ll get a much weaker version of Delta in West Tennessee but it could still produce significant rainfall here. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for several counties (Chester, Decatur, Fayette, Hardeman, Hardin, Henderson, Madison, McNairy, and Shelby counties) in West Tennessee from Saturday morning through Sunday morning.
A flash flood watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later weather updates and be prepared to take action should flash flood warnings be issued.
TONIGHT
Showers will continue to move through West Tennessee overnight. Be prepared for the wet weather with a raincoat or umbrella at those football games tonight! No lightning is expected. Temperatures will drop just to the middle and upper 60s at the coolest point of the night. Don’t forget to download the new WBBJ Weather app on your Android device or iPhone to stay ahead of the weather where you are!
Showers (some heavy) will be off-and-on all day tomorrow resulting in 1-3″ of rainfall across West Tennessee. Higher totals in a range of 2-4″ are possible in areas closer to the Tennessee River in southwest Tennessee. Thunderstorms are possible during the late morning through afternoon on Saturday. While the risk is low, the Storm Team will also be monitoring radar carefully for a brief/weak tornado, mainly near the Tennessee-Mississippi border and points south.
Winds could gust between 25 and 35 mph Saturday afternoon and evening but should only cause isolated power outages. Temperatures will peak in the lower 70s tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned to WBBJ 7 Eyewitness News for the latest hour-by-hour forecast, and for more updates keep up with Storm Team Weather online too.
Tom Meiners
Storm Team 7 Chief Meteorologist, CBM
Twitter – @WBBJ7TomMeiners
Facebook – http://facebook.com/WBBJ.tom.meiners
Email – tmeiners@wbbjtv.com
TROPICAL WEATHER – 10:00 p.m.
From the National Hurricane Center…
At 10:00 PM CT, the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Delta is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday morning. A motion toward the northeast is then expected through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta should move across central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. After that time, the system is forecast to move across northern Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 75 mph with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Delta should become a tropical storm, and then a tropical depression, on Saturday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay…7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA…5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA…3-5 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA…4-7 ft
Calcasieu Lake…2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass…2-4 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River…2-4 ft
Lake Borgne…2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas…1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay…1-3 ft
Sabine Lake…1-3 ft
Port O’Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay…1-3 ft
It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure, or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible changes and updates.
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your localNational Weather Service forecast office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions already occuring. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread onshore within portions of the tropical storm warning areas during the next several hours.
RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding.
For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.
As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.
SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
