Severe Weather Incoming Thursday, High Risk Upgrade Expected
Wednesday Night Forecast Update
Wednesday Night Forecast for March 24th:
Our 2nd significant storm threat this season will be here on Thursday. A moderate risk of severe weather (4/5) has already been issued 2 days out for most of West Tennessee.
This storm system is eerily similar to last week’s storm that spawned 20 tornadoes in Alabama. Forecast models have this system tracking a little further north then last weeks.
This could increase the tornado threat this go around for us. The timing of the most likely tornado threat appears to be between 2-7 p.m. for our area.
Strong storms are also likely to move into West Tennessee early Thursday morning. Some could be severe, but the most concerning threat for Tornadoes, Large Hail and Extreme Winds will be in the afternoon.
Portions of West Tennessee are expected to be upgraded to a HIGH risk tomorrow. We will keep monitoring the forecast models as we get them in the Storm Team Weather Center and will bring you the latest details right here.
Clouds will increase as the night goes on and the winds will begin to pick up after midnight. The humidity will also be increasing and that should keep overnight lows to only dip into the upper 50s.
Storm chances could move into our southern counties by 4 a.m. and spread northward over the following could of hours.
Severe storms cannot be ruled out in the morning, so plan accordingly for your morning commute.
Rain showers and some weaker non-severe storms are expected for the first part of the day, but we should get a break between the late morning and early afternoon.
Expect cloudy to mostly cloudy skies all day. Winds will be breezy at times and come out of the south. Highs should reach the low 70s in the afternoon. Some stronger storms and likely some severe weather will show up Thursday during the afternoon and evening time frame.
The timing, location and strength of these storms is evolving and we hope to have a better idea as the system gets closer. But a moderate risk of severe weather has already been issued by the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center for most of our region.
Here is a look at the timing of the storms betwenn 4-7 p.m. Thursday from the HRRR model run from Wednesday night.
Some locations south of I-40 will possibly be upgraded to a high risk for severe storms, which hasn’t happened in several years for West Tennessee.
This is a significant threat and you need to stay weather aware and watch the forecast closely over the next couple of days.
Flash flooding could become an issue in some areas south of I-40 as well so we will be keeping a close eye on that situation as well. 2-4 inches of rain will be possible in some areas that are hit with multiple storms on Thursday.
Friday will be a bit cooler behind the cold front and highs will make it into the mid to upper 60s. But we should see plenty of sunshine and the winds are expected to come out of the west. It should be a dry finish to the work week and start to our weekend.
Showers are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning according to some of the forecast models. We should see plenty of sunshine as well at times this weekend.
Highs will climb into the mid 70s on Saturday, but should be about 10 degrees cooler on Sunday, behind Saturday night’s storm system. Thunderstorms could be possible as the system tracks across West Tennessee, but it is too early to tell or have high confidence in the forecast as of now as far as severe weather concerns.
We are now officially in Spring and starting to get closer to our peak severe weather season. So you need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.