Warm & Mostly Dry Weekend, Storm Threat Sunday Night
Friday Night Forecast Update
Friday Night Forecast Update for October 22nd:
Southerly winds will return this weekend and that will start a warming trend across West Tennessee. Highs will be in the low 80s by Sunday afternoon. Showers chances remain low until Sunday night when a powerful front will collide with a humid warm atmosphere leading to a stormy environment. Severe weather is expected for some of us with gusty winds being the main threat. But a tornado or two will also be possible across our area early Monday morning. We will talk more details about your weekend forecast and who could still see a shower and the latest details on the incoming storm threat right here.
TONIGHT:
Mostly clear skies and calm winds will stick around West Tennessee tonight. Behind Thursday’s cold front, a drier and cooler air-mass moved back in. Lows tonight will fall down to the mid to upper 40s, so you might want to click the heater back on tonight if you get cold easily. I would recommend bringing a long sleeve shirt, hoodie or jacket to the football games tonight.
THE WEEKEND:
Forecast models are all over the place this weekend when it comes to the high temperatures and chance for rain. Forecast models have West Tennessee anywhere from the upper 60s to the low 80s. It all depends on the wind direction and where the center of a high pressure system sets up this weekend across the region and where a cold front decides to stall out.
As of now, morning lows are forecast to be in the upper 40s Saturday morning and lows 60s Sunday morning. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach the mid to upper 70s Saturday and low 80s on Sunday. Rain chances are currently low until Sunday night and partly sunny skies are expected. The best chance before Sunday night for rain as of now will be on Saturday, and chances are only currently 20% for areas north of Jackson. Winds are expected to have a southerly component to them most of the weekend and will be breezy on Sunday as the next storm system approaches.
SUNDAY NIGHT – MONDAY MORNING STORM THREAT:
The most potent storm system of the fall so far is expected to impact the Mid South on Sunday. The storms are expected to hold off until Sunday night for us in West Tennessee but if the storm show up Sunday evening, we could be in for some really nasty weather across the area. The Storm Prediction has issued an Enhanced Risk (3/5) three days out before the event. This is a sign that they are very concerned about the storm risk on Sunday. For us in West Tennessee, we are on the outer edges of the concern area from the SPC. But that might change as the weekend progresses.
The short term forecast models today are taking their first looks at the event and most of the them do not have the storms reaching West Tennessee until closer to midnight. The later the storms show up, the better chance for us to avoid severe thunderstorms. The earlier the storms show up, the stronger the storms are expected to be for us. The IBM model shown below is the model that concerns us the most in the Storm Team Weather Center. This model is predicting the storms to show up as early as 9 PM across the Mississippi River which could lead to some strong storms between 9 PM and 1 AM in West Tennessee.
The IBM model is currently forecasting the line to move through Jackson and Madison county between 10 PM and 11 PM and continuing to move to the east overnight. Some of the other short term models are not bringing the line through Jackson until 1 AM – 2 AM. This would be a better case scenario for us, so let’s hope the models slowing down that system are correct. Storms are expected regardless to impact all of our viewing area as the front moves through.
For tips on preparing for the storms, click here. To download the WBBJ 7 Weather app, click here.
NEXT WEEK:
Warm and humid weather for October will hang around for the first half of next week. Highs on Monday will be above normal and into the mid to upper 70s. We are also expecting some storm chances to continue for the first half of the day on Monday and temperatures Monday night only falling down to the upper 40s again behind the front. Showers are expected to take a break on Tuesday before coming back and some storm activity could return on Wednesday so be sure to stay weather aware next week. Cooler weather could return for the back half of the week after Wednesday’s storm system moves out.
Not only are we still in the middle of tropical storm season, we are now moving into our second severe weather season. So you need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.
Storm Team Chief Meteorologist
Joel Barnes
Facebook: @JoelBarnesWeather
Twitter: @JoelBarnes13
Instagram: @joelbarnes13
