Severe Weather Expected on Thursday, All Severe Weather Modes are in Play!

Wednesday Night Forecast Update for February 16th:

It will stay warm, cloudy and breezy tonight and a few weak storms or showers could drift through. The bulk of the storm energy from the incoming cold front will pass by Thursday afternoon. Straight line winds could gust as high as 70 MPH, some large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible.  We will have more in the severe weather threat, and when you could see the storms moving through your location coming up here.

TONIGHT:

Mostly cloudy skies, warm and breezy weather will continue tonight across West Tennessee. Gusts over 30 MPH will be likely and sustained winds will be between 15-20 MPH overnight and into the morning on Thursday. We should stay dry until after midnight. Weak storms and shower chances will increase in the upcoming morning.

THURSDAY:

Showers and storms are likely on Thursday as a strong cold front will come crashing through the region. Winds will remain breezy and changing directions from the south to northwest during the day. Highs on Thursday will hit the mid to upper 60s before the front comes by and there will be enough storm energy lingering across the area for the potential for some severe weather in the afternoon hours. The strength of the storms and chances for severe weather will be determined by the timing and location of the low pressures system connected to the incoming front.

We will be watching the system very closely in the Storm Team Weather center and hope to have more updates over the next 24 hours. The Storm Prediction Center has put almost all of West Tennessee under an enhanced risk of severe weather (3/5) for Thursday. Although straight line wind events will be the main threat, a few tornadoes and large hail cannot be ruled out in any rotating storms that develop in the afternoon. Behind the front, overnight lows will fall back down into the mid 20s again.

The timeline for potential severe weather across West Tennessee shapes up like this.

FRIDAY:

After a cold start in the mid 20s, highs will reach the mid 40s into the afternoon from all the sunshine and the light breeze out of the west. Showers from Thursday’s system will have moved out by sunrise Friday, so expect a pretty nice day. Friday night lows will fall into the upper 20s with the clear skies.

THE WEEKEND:

A bit warmer and nice weather will be coming back for the weekend for all of West Tennessee. Highs will make it into the low to mid 50s on Saturday and mid to low 60s on Sunday. Plenty of sunshine can be expected and the winds will stay light and typically out of the southwest. Morning lows will still drop down near or below freezing both mornings though.

NEXT WEEK:

The warm spell will continue into next week but rain showers and storm activity is also expected to stick around for the first half of the week. Highs will reach the 60s on Monday and depending on how fast the clouds and rain showers move in, highs could be anywhere from the low 60s to upper 60s. Some model trends are suggesting 70s on Tuesday across the region. The winds early next week will come out of the southwest and be breezy at times as well. Rain showers are expected to return on Monday and continue into the day on Tuesday and Wednesday. Although some storms will be possible, the severe weather threat early next week does not look as intense as the one coming in on Thursday.  A flooding concern though may develop in the middle of next week. We could see several inches of rain next week and the system has the potential of stalling out and producing trailing intense rain showers that could last for hours at a time. The showers are expected to clear out on Thursday and cooler weather will move in for Friday.

FINAL THOUGHT:

We are still in the middle of winter here in West Tennessee and we currently could see more rounds of winter precipitation in the coming weeks. There could be more chances for severe weather though too as we get going into 2022. So you need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.

For tips on preparing for the storms, click here. To download the WBBJ 7 Weather app, click here.

Storm Team Chief Meteorologist
Joel Barnes
Facebook: @JoelBarnesWeather
Twitter: @JoelBarnes13
Instagram: @joelbarnes13