A Moderate To High End Severe Threat

Wednesday Morning Forecast Update for April 13th:

**UPDATE: The Moderate Severe Risk Has Been Extended Further East**

TODAY:

Showers and a few non severe storms are expected through the late morning hours. A break in most of the rain and storms through early noon. Storms will return mid to late afternoon with the bulk of the storms moving through from late afternoon into the evening. More on timing below.

The severe storm threat ramps up across the Mississippi River around 3 PM tomorrow. The storms will come in a couple waves and should exit the Tennessee River by 11 PM. A moderate risk of severe weather has been issued for Jackson and most of the west Tennessee viewing area. Tornadoes will be possible as well as large hail and gusty winds. Please stay weather aware on Wednesday. Make sure you have a plan ready to go if you will be put under any type of storm warning. We will have more on the timing of when you could be impacted by these storms and the rest of your forecast coming up here.

TODAY:

Our greatest threat for severe weather this week will be coming as early as mid afternoon.  The Storm Prediction Center has already put all of West Tennessee under an modertate risk (4/5) and areas in and west of Jackson under a Moderate risk (4/5).  Strong straight line winds, large hail and tornadoes all appear possible in the late evening hours, HOWEVER, be aware that a couple of isolated supercells can always pop up ahead of the main event which many times has been my experience with these types of systems. It would be advised to monitor weather closely starting early to mid afternoon.  We were under a moderate risk earlier this month when tornadoes and straight line winds devastated the Hub City, please stay weather aware and have a plan.

Storms look to get most active over northwest Tennessee around 3 to 4 pm with the central portions around 5-7 pm and the Tennessee River area around the 7 -10 pm hours.  *Please remember this is a complex system and timing has been changing a little with each model run and there is still time for this system to speed up or slow down some. We all should be weather aware starting in the afternoon and be on the lookout for dangerous storms.

Futurecast Showing Storms Moving Through Northwest Tennessee In The 3 to 4 pm hours.

Futurecast Showing The West And Central Areas Getting Hit With Possible Severe Storms In The general 4 to 7 pm hours.

Futurecast Showing Potential Severe Storms Moving Through The Central And Tennessee River Areas In The 7 – 10 pm Hours.

Highs on Wednesday will again reach the upper 70s to near 80°. It will remain warm and humid until the cold front passes, which will allow overnight lows to drop into the 40s by Thursday morning.  Showers should move out before the sun comes up on Thursday.

THURSDAY:

Temperatures will be below normal on Thursday behind Wednesday nights cold front. Highs will make it up into the mid to upper 60s but we should see plenty of the sunshine. The winds will come out of the north behind the front but in general will be quite light. Thursday night lows will fall down into the mid 40s, but lows should stay out of the 30s for all of West Tennessee.

FRIDAY:

Friday looks very similar to Thursday, but we should see in increase in clouds into the afternoon from the southerly winds that will be returning. Highs on Friday will reach the low to mid 70s depending on when the winds change direction. We will be rain free with a southerly breeze around 10 MPH into the afternoon. Friday night lows will fall into the mid 50s and be warmer than the previous nights due to a brief increase in the humidity.

THE WEEKEND:

The weekend forecast looks a bit tricky as of now, but forecast guidance is suggesting more showers and weak storms to move through the area. As of early in the week, the weekend’s setup doesn’t look real likely for severe weather, but rain showers look more likely then not. Skies will be mostly cloudy this weekend and the winds will shift from the northeast on Saturday to more out of the east on Sunday as the low pressure system moves through. Highs will climb up into the upper 60s on Saturday and fall into the mid 60s on Sunday. Saturday and Sunday night lows will drop down to the upper 40s or around 50°. We will hope to have a better idea as to what you can expect this weekend as the week progresses. A system is coming, but what side of it we will be on here in West Tennessee will determine what we will see including our chances for storms or severe weather. Stay will WBBJ TV for more information as the week progresses.

FINAL THOUGHT:

Spring has officially kicked off here in West Tennessee, and another freeze in the next week or two seems highly unlikely. We typically get our last freeze around the beginning of April and I think that was the case this year as well, feel free to start your gardening. There will be more chances for severe weather though as we get deeper into Spring. So you need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.

For tips on preparing for the storms, click here. To download the WBBJ 7 Weather app, click here.

Brian Davis
Storm Team 7 Meteorologist
Twitter – @Brian7wbbj
Facebook – Briandaviswbbj
Email – Badavis@wbbjtv.com