Snow Coming Thursday Evening, EXTREME COLD Friday!
Tuesday Night Forecast Update
Tuesday Night Forecast Update for December 20th:
The feels like (wind chill) temperature is going to drop from 40° around 4 PM on Thursday to -20° by midnight. That is a 60° feels like difference over an 8 hour period. On top of the extreme cold, snow accumulations look likely for everyone north of I-40 and still probable for areas south of I-40. The highest snow totals will be in our northern counties and the forecast in Jackson looks to be 1-3″ as of now. The wind chill could stay below zero for a 36 hour period from Thursday night through Saturday morning. Please bundle up and be safe folks.
If you are traveling to the west or north we recommend you do it on Wednesday or early Thursday morning as snow could start to cross the Mississippi River by 3 pm. Travel will be very difficult Thursday evening through Friday morning across West Tennessee. If you are traveling south or east, you can get out as late as 5 PM Thursday and most likely avoid the storm. We will have the latest forecast details and everything else you need to know coming up here.
As we get closer to the event, confidence in the forecast is growing and usually within 48 hours we have a very good idea of snow amounts and who is most likely to see the highest totals.
Now is a good time to catch up on your winter weather driving safety tips if you plan on traveling or might out running errands from Thursday evening through the Christmas weekend. Here are a few basic tips and reminders.
TONIGHT:
It was a normal winter day on Tuesday across West Tennessee. We will see mostly clear skies tonight making for kind of a chilly night. The winds will be light and come out of the east as well as be calm at times. We will remain dry during the night. Tuesday night lows will again fall down to around 30° or some upper 20s will also be possible.
WEDNESDAY:
Wednesday will be a few degrees warmer than Tuesday but highs again will struggle to hit the 50° mark. The winds will shift slowly to more out of the east on the back side of a large area of high pressure. We will see some clouds lingering around into the afternoon and increasing clouds late. Wednesday night lows will be a bit warmer due to the increase in clouds as well as a late shift in the winds back to the southwest. It could become breezy overnight as well.
THURSDAY:
An historic storm system looks to be targeting West Tennessee on Thursday. Highs will reach up to around 50° in the afternoon before falling all the way down to around 1° by sunrise Friday morning. Showers will start in the late afternoon and transition from rain, to a brief wintry mix around sunset. The wintry mix will be brief and snow showers should start sometime between 5 PM and 7 pm in Jackson.
The faster the cold moves in will have a direct correlation as to how many inches of snow we pick up. This is a tricky forecast for many reasons.
We could end up with 3 inches of snow or could get less than an inch in Jackson. The bigger concern from this system may end up being the cold as the wind chill will be below zero for an extended period of time. The wind chill is forecast to be between -10 and -20° early Friday morning. We have not had a Christmas system this cold since the 1980s (1983/1989).
The snow showers are forecast to move out before the sun comes up on Friday and the highest accumulations are forecast closer to Kentucky than near Mississippi due to the fact the temperatures will be colder sooner north of Jackson than south of Jackson. Forecast models are all showing some snow across West Tennessee, but snow fall forecast have ranged anywhere from 1″ to 4″ across the region. Here is a look at the high and low possible scenarios.
After analyzing all the forecast data, here is a look at our WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather current potential snow forecast across West Tennessee. This could change some as we get more forecast model guidance as the system gets closer. Overall our confidence is pretty high that this will not change much more either direction, if it does change, we are looking at a chance of an inch more or an inch less in general.
FRIDAY:
We may not set any low temperature records from the system as the low records are (-7/1989 on Thursday), (-6/1983 on Friday) and (-10/1983 on Saturday). We do have a shot at the low/max temperature record on Friday (15/1983) as the forecast high is only 13° for Friday. The wind chill will be extreme in the morning with the winds still blustery at 20-25 MPH early in the day on Friday. The clouds will move out during the morning on Friday and Friday night lows will again be cold falling down to the mid single digits. Frostbite will be a legit threat is you have exposed skin and are out in the elements for more than 15 mins on Friday, please bundle up!
Here are a few basic tips and reminders as well as clothes you should be wearing if you are planning to go out and play in the snow or taking the little ones out. Frostbite will be a legit threat so take it seriously.
CHRISTMAS WEEKEND:
The winds will weaken some during the day on Saturday but it is still going to be very cold. The winds will be around 10-15 MPH on Saturday and come out of the west. This will again make it feel as low as -10° early Christmas Eve morning. Highs on Christmas Eve (Saturday) will be around 20° and we will fall down to around 10° for Christmas morning (Sunday). Highs on Sunday will make it back up to the mid 20s and Sunday night low will drop down to the mid teens. We should see mostly sunny skies this weekend but it is still going to be very cold. Please protect the 4 Ps (People, Pipes, Pets and Plants) from this system. This is a life threatening system if you get caught or stuck outside for an extended period of time, please be safe and bring the pets in.
FINAL THOUGHT:
All locations have already topped their monthly rain averages during the first two weeks of the month across West Tennessee. We will get a break from the rain late this week but that will usher in another round of cold weather that could be sticking around into the Christmas holiday. Don’t give up on a white Christmas this year as long term forecast models are still suggesting snow that could linger around through the holiday. You need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.
For tips on preparing for the storms, click here. To download the WBBJ 7 Weather app, click here.
Storm Team Chief Meteorologist
Joel Barnes
Facebook: @JoelBarnesWeather
Twitter: @JoelBarnes13
Instagram: @joelbarnes13
