Wet & Windy Evening, Storm Threat Wednesday Night/Thursday

Tuesday Night Forecast Update

February 14, 2023

Storm Team Weather,

Tuesday Night Forecast Update for February 14th:

A warm front will lift northward into the Mid-South tomorrow, bringing increased moisture and temperatures to the region. A low pressure system will begin moving over the Central Plains and as this system pushes closer to the Mid-South, thunderstorm development is expected. Our environment will be favorable for severe storms Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

However, models are struggling to pinpoint the exact path of the low pressure system. If a more northerly path occurs, the Mid-South will see a greater chance for tornadoes and large hail. A southerly path will inhibit instability, which would decrease our severe chances in West Tennessee. The likely timing of this event will be 10PM Wednesday through 6AM Thursday. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the biggest threat, with large hail and heavy rain possible

You need to stay weather aware and please download our WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather App from the play or app store. It will alert you to any severe weather where you live and will wake you up at night if you turn up the notifications. We also send out special forecast alerts that you cannot always catch on the television or over social media over our app. Our most dangerous time frame from this event will likely be when you are sleeping Wednesday night. We will have the latest forecast timing of tonight’s rain and more on the incoming severe storm threat right here.

VALENTINE’S NIGHT:

Mostly cloudy skies stuck around for most of your Valentine’s Day. It was a warm day as well but a windy one too. Southerly winds were sustained between 20-30 MPH with gusts as high as 50 MPH. A wind advisory has been issued for all of the region until midnight Tuesday night. On top of the wind, rain showers and a few weak storms will also be possible in the evening hours before tapering off later tonight. Tonight’s lows will fall down to the mid 50s and it will remain breezy. We are not expecting severe weather tonight or strong storms. Stronger storms are likely though late on Wednesday as a slight risk (2/5) of severe weather has been issued for most of West Tennessee.

WEDNESDAY:

Wednesday is going to be another warm and windy day with high temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s by the afternoon. Most of the day will be dry but storm chances with the potential of severe weather will return late Wednesday evening and stick around overnight into Thursday morning. All severe weather modes will be possible including very strong winds, hail and possibly a tornado or two, so please stay weather aware Wednesday night.

The winds will stay out of the south all day before changing over on Thursday. Wednesday night lows will remain very warm in the low 60s.

THURSDAY:

Rain and storm chances will continue into Thursday morning with the potential for some severe weather in the early morning hours. Another line of storms could redevelop into the afternoon but we are expecting most of those to impact areas east of Jackson but they could be very close.

We are going to keep a close eye on this system over the next few days as it gets closer and moves through West Tennessee. Highs on Thursday will occur in the morning hours before falling off quickly into the afternoon behind the cold front.

Most of the day temperatures will be in the 50s and 40s but will fall down below freezing into the mid to upper 20s by Friday morning. The clouds will clear out into the afternoon/evening as well and expect clear skies by sunrise on Friday. The winds will shift from the southwest in the morning to the northwest into the afternoon/evening.

FRIDAY:

Friday is going to be the coldest day of the week on the backside of the cold front. Highs on Friday will only reach the low 40s and will again fall to the mid 20s overnight into Saturday morning. We should see plenty of sunshine on Friday and the winds will be a bit brisk most of the day out of the northwest. The wind chill could be in the teens at times early in the morning and again late at night.

THE WEEKEND:

The weekend looks very similar to the last couple weekends across the Mid South. We are expecting dry weather with warmer conditions on Sunday again than on Saturday. We should see a mix of sun and clouds but we should be dry all weekend long. Saturday highs will reach up to around 50° and Sunday highs will make it up to around 60°. Saturday night lows will fall down to the mid 30s and Sunday night lows will only fall to the mid to upper 40s as breezy southwest winds could return.

FINAL THOUGHT:

After the coldest Christmas in decades here in West Tennessee, warmer weather returned for the start of the new year, but some cooler weather moved in to wrap up the month and stuck around into February. The next chance for rain and storms is coming in the middle of this week, no winter storms are currently in the forecast but in will be a little cooler on Friday and again to start this weekend. You need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.

For tips on preparing for the storms, click here. To download the WBBJ 7 Weather app, click here.

Storm Team Chief Meteorologist
Joel Barnes
Facebook: @JoelBarnesWeather
Twitter: @JoelBarnes13
Instagram: @joelbarnes13