Showers Return Wednesday, Few Storms Late Thursday
Tuesday Night Forecast Update
Tuesday Night Forecast Update for March 7th:
It was a little cooler Tuesday behind last night’s cold front, but we were still well above normal for this time of the year. Clouds are returning tonight and rain showers will follow on Wednesday. Most of the rain Wednesday will be south of Gibson County. More rain and a few storms are possible on Thursday. We will talk more about the storm chances on Thursday and have the latest forecast details on what is looking like a pretty wet weekend; all below right here.
2023 CLIMATE UPDATE:
It has been a warm start to 2023 with February seeing 3 times as many days above normal than we saw below normal. From February 5th to the end of the month we only had 3 days below normal. The hottest we got was 78° and the coolest we got was 19°. We didn’t record any snow. We did see rain every Wednesday and all but one Thursday during the month though.
We did only pick up 2.86″ of rain at the airport in Jackson but many locations in West Tennessee did register higher rain totals for the month. In Jackson we have seen 11.11″ of rain so far and that is 1.33″ above for the year so far. The warmest day of the year so far was Monday March 6th when we hit 79°. We have not hit an 80° yet in 2023 at the airport in Jackson.
TONIGHT:
We hit the mid 60s Tuesday afternoon and saw plenty of sunshine as well. But clouds will increase tonight across West Tennessee but the rain showers will hold off. The winds will be a tad breezy and come out of the northeast between 10-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY:
The front that will pass by on Tuesday will slowly drift back to the north on Wednesday and bring a return of the rain showers to West Tennessee. Most of the showers on Wednesday will be in our southern counties but we are expecting mostly cloudy skies as well.
Highs on Wednesday will depend on how far north the boundary shifts into the afternoon but it appears Jackson will be on the north side of the front keeping highs only in the low 50s for us. Wednesday night lows will not fall off much due to the thick clouds, staying in the upper 40s. The winds on Wednesday will come out of the east but could vary at times along the front.
THURSDAY:
The stalled boundary will lift further to the north on Thursday and as a low pressure system connected to the front gets closer, it will bring rain showers back to all of West Tennessee. Highs on Thursday will reach the mid to upper 50s and expect mostly cloudy skies.
We could encounter a few storms after 8 PM on Thursday, but we are not expecting severe weather at this time from the storm system in West Tennessee. Thursday night lows will only fall down to the upper 40s as we will be on the south side of the front. The winds will stay out of the southwest most of the day on Thursday.
FRIDAY:
The heaviest rain and best chance for a storm or two will come by Thursday night as the trailing cold front on the back side of the low pressure system will pass by. We should be dry by sunrise on Friday.
Highs on Friday will be in the mid 50s and occur early in the day. The clouds will clear out Friday morning and a mostly sunny afternoon is expected. As the remain clear Friday night, lows will dip down to the 30s again to start the weekend. The winds will shift from the south to the northwest after the front passes by.
THE WEEKEND:
The trickiest forecast this week looks to be the weekend. Forecast model guidance is all over the place with a 15° temperatures difference in forecast highs. The most likely scenario as of now keeps temperatures above freezing but there is a chance some areas north of Jackson could fall down near freezing. Saturday appears to start out mostly sunny regardless but the clouds will increase an showers chances will return into the late evening hours. Rain showers also look likely on Sunday but as of now, we cannot rule out a brief period of winter precipitation in our northern counties but it seems highly unlikely as of now. We will be watching the weekend system closely as the week progresses and hopefully have the forecast pin pointed by the end of the work week.
FINAL THOUGHT:
After the coldest Christmas in decades here in West Tennessee, warmer weather returned for the start of the new year, and stayed above normal most of the month of February. The next chance for rain and storms is coming in the middle of next week, no winter storms are currently in the forecast but in will be a little cooler this weekend and snow could come close to West Tennessee. You need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.
For tips on preparing for the storms, click here. To download the WBBJ 7 Weather app, click here.
Storm Team Chief Meteorologist
Joel Barnes
Facebook: @JoelBarnesWeather
Twitter: @JoelBarnes13
Instagram: @joelbarnes13
