Impacts From Tropical Storm IDA

August 30, 2021

Storm Team Weather,

Weather Update: Monday, August 30 —

Hurricane Ida has weakened back to down to a tropical storm. The storm will continue to ‘fill up’ as pressure rises on the central core and the storm transitions over to a standard low pressure through Wednesday. through that process the storm will still be capable of heavy rain and gusty winds and even a few isolated tornadoes. However it all depends on relative position to the center of the storm. Turns out, West Tennessee will spend most of the time on the northwestern quadrant. In general, this is the less active side of the storm, but we do expect some degree of rain bands to push through mainly between later in the afternoon and then increase in areal coverage overnight into Tuesday morning.

There has been a subtle eastward trend on the forecast guidance from NHC and even on Futurecast. A further east track will shift the line of a non-event eastward from the Mississippi River towards Hwt 45. I still think there will be a hard cut-off. Right now, that looks to be somewhere west of Hwy 45 with less then a tenth of rain vs 1-2 inches of rain. It appears the heaviest totals will be along the Tennessee River and SW Tennessee between 2-4 inches by late Tuesday afternoon. There is a Flash Flood Watch out for most of West Tennessee, but I wouldn’t be entirely surprised to see the row of counties removed from the west. The threat remains though especially along and east of Hwy 45, where the ground remains a bit saturated from last weeks heavy rains. As for the severe threat from this system. I think here in Jackson and points north of I-40 wont have much to worry about with respect to a tornado threat. However closer to the center near Chester, Southern Decatur, Hardin, boot heel of Henderson Co and Hardin Co we will need to keep a close eye on late tonight through Tuesday morning…