Rain Tonight & Wednesday, Freezing Rain, Sleet and Ice Likely on Thursday

Tuesday Night Forecast Update for February 1st:

The NWS in Memphis added Madison County to the Winter Storm Watch and Upgraded several counties northwest of Madison county to a Winter Storm Warning.  The forecast hasn’t changed much today for the incoming winter storm on Thursday. The most likely time for freezing rain and ice accumulations will be between 6am-6pm Thursday; starting across the Mississippi River in the early morning and tapering off past the Tennessee River in the early evening. A widespread 0.25-0.50″ of ice will be possible across our area.

Off and on rain showers will move in tonight and stick around at times on Wednesday. After the sun sets Wednesday, some wintry mix could move across the Mississippi River but the greatest chance for ice impacts will be Thursday morning/afternoon across West Tennessee. The biggest concern is for areas northwest of Jackson. The frustrating thing about this forecast for us here in West Tennessee, is that Jackson appears to be right on the ice edge in most forecast scenarios; making it the hardest place to forecast for currently with this storm. If you are north & west of Jackson, prepare for difficult travel and possible power outages. If you are southeast of Jackson, although some travel issues are expected, you might just end of with a cold rain for most of the event. We will have the latest details and up to minute forecast coming up here.

TONIGHT:

Clouds will be increasing towards the back half of the day. The winds will be a bit breezy at times and come out of the south. Showers will return overnight into Wednesday morning and overnight lows are expected to drop only into the upper 40s tonight.

WEDNESDAY:

Cloudy skies and breezy conditions are likely all day on Wednesday. Rain showers are expected to show up early and stick around at times during the day. A few rumbles of thunder could mix in with some of the heavier bands of rain, but strong storms or severe weather chances look very low as of now. Highs will make it into the mid 50s on Wednesday and the winds will stay out of the south all day.  After the sunsets, some wintry mix could begin to cross the Mississippi River, but any ice concerns Wednesday night should stay west of Madison County and most likely along the counties that border Arkansas and Missouri.

THURSDAY:

Rain showers will continue to come down early Thursday morning but will quickly be turning over. Behind the cold front, periods of freezing rain, sleet, ice and even some light snow could mix in. The amounts of winter type precipitation we see across West Tennessee will depend on the location of the system as well as the timing of the cold front and when it might pass by our region. The areas most likely to pick up ice accumulations and major impacts from the system will be areas to the north and west of Madison county. If the projected forecast patch changes even as little of an amount of 50-75 miles, we could get hammered in Jackson as well with the ice. So we will be watching the system very closely as it gets closer to our area this week in the Storm Team 7 Weather Center. You need to monitor the forecast as well this week as this has the potential of being a major winter storm for us. Thursday night lows should fall back down into the 20s again.

FRIDAY:

Friday morning will start out cold in the 20s. Depending on how slowly the system moves out on Thursday, we could see a wintry mix or light snow showers lingering into the early morning hours on Friday. Highs on Friday will be cold and only be reaching the low to mid 30s. The clouds should clear out into the afternoon and evening hours on Friday, but that will lead to a very cold night on Friday. We could see temperatures fall back down to the low to mid teens on Saturday morning.

FINAL THOUGHT:

Winter has officially started here in West Tennessee and we currently could see more rounds of winter precipitation in the coming weeks.  There could be more chances for severe weather though too as we get going into 2022. So you need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.

For tips on preparing for the storms, click here. To download the WBBJ 7 Weather app, click here.

Storm Team Chief Meteorologist
Joel Barnes
Facebook: @JoelBarnesWeather
Twitter: @JoelBarnes13
Instagram: @joelbarnes13