Heat Advisory Through Thursday & Some Pop up Storms in the Forecast this Week
Monday Night Forecast Update
Monday Night Forecast Update for August 9th:
The heat is back across West Tennessee and will be sticking around for most of the work week. The heat index will hover around 105° for the next few days and that has prompted the NWS in Memphis to issue a heat advisory for all of our viewing area. Some pop up storms are expected on Tuesday and we can’t rule out a few showers tonight. A cold front is expected to pass by early over the upcoming weekend bringing cooler weather and some storm activity is expected to spark up as well along the front. We also have some action in the tropics that could lead to possible hurricane development this week. We have a lot to get to in the forecast and will break it down for you right here.
A heat advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service in Memphis for portions of West Tennessee through Thursday evening and could be extended through Friday for many of us. Heat indices will range between 105-110° at times for the remainder of the week. According to the NWS, you should:
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside. When possible reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when possible. To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an emergency! Call 9 1 1.
Skies will remain partly cloudy tonight and the winds will stay out of the southwest between 5-10 MPH. The dew point and humidity will be high keeping our overnight lows up and most will only see temperatures dropping into the mid 70s. Some isolated pop up showers will also be possible, but most of us will not see them as chances sit around 20%. The best chance to encounter one of these showers or weak storms will be the folks living near the Kentucky border.
Highs will make it up into the mid 90s and the heat index will hang around 105° in the afternoon. Skies will become partly cloudy as the day goes on and few isolated pop up storms or rain showers are expected to flare up in the afternoon. Chances for rain sit around 30%. Severe weather cannot be ruled out in the form or gusty winds, but overall the severe weather threat is low, but the Storm Prediction Center has put us under a marginal risk (1/5), but the slight risk (2/5) sits just to our north. Some heavy rain and lightning can be expected with any of the pop ups that do develop during the day even if we don’t see any severe weather.
The heat will continue to climb into next week as southerly flow will continue to dominate our weather. This will allow temperatures to continue to rise as high as the mid 90s with a heat index over 100° due to the humid air mass that will be lingering across West Tennessee. Morning lows will only drop into the mid 70s for the middle of the week. Pop ups shower chances sit around 10% each day, so significant rainfall or severe weather is not expected.
A cold front is expected to move through West Tennessee towards the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend. The timing of the front could change but right now it looks to pass through late Friday and will bring some gusty thunderstorms with it. Highs will stay in the 90s until the front passes by and then highs are expected to fall back into the 80s. The winds will stay out of the southwest as well until the front passes and then expect the humidity to decrease and the winds to shift to the north.
Behind the cold front, temperatures are expected to cool down some for the weekend. Highs will fall into the 80s behind the cold front and morning lows will dip back into the 60s. Some shower and storm chances are expected to linger into the day on Saturday depending on the timing of the cold front. Sunny skies and less humid weather is expected on Sunday with the winds forecast to come out of the north as the cold front moves away from us and high pressure moves back in.
We are watching a cluster on thunderstorms that is likely to become the next named system of the 2021 hurricane season. The system is forecast to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles Monday night before it moves toward Puerto Rico on Tuesday. By mid-week it would be near the island of Hispaniola.
Most forecast models are showing the storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico and if it does, we will be needing to keep a closer eye on it in the Storm Team Weather Center and look for possible impacts to our forecast here in West Tennessee.
Not only are we now officially in tropical storm season, we are still in the middle of our severe weather season. So you need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.