Major Winter Storm to Impact West Tennessee This Weekend
Thursday Night Forecast Update
Thursday Night Forecast Update for January 13th:
Heavy rain will transition over to snow quickly Saturday after the sun goes down across West Tennessee. Significant snow amounts are likely for some of us. The timing and location of the highest amounts forecast could change over the next 48 hours as the system gets closer. But confidence is high that most if not all of West Tennessee with see accumulating snowfall by Sunday morning. Catch the latest details and full weather forecast. We know the snow is coming and you need to be prepared for it. Catch the latest information right here.
One of the models I trust is doing this best with this system up until 6 AM Sunday morning is the IBM GRAF model shown below. But this model only goes out until 6 AM Sunday morning and we are likely to see additional snow accumulation between 6 AM and 6 PM on Sunday. So these numbers, especially in the highlighted area, will likely be higher.
A weak front will drift in from the north on Thursday night but it is expected to be a dry front for us. The winds will change from the south to the northwest on Thursday night and that will cut off temperatures some. Highs will drop behind the front into the upper 40s again on Friday. By Friday afternoon the winds will start to come out of the northeast as high pressure will temporally be moving back in. Lows will drop into the low 30s Thursday night but only fall into the mid to upper 30s Friday night as thick clouds will be moving in for the first half of the weekend. The next system could show up late Friday night and bring some rain showers with it.
Rain showers in the morning and afternoon will turn to a wintry mix and then snow showers will return by Saturday evening/night across West Tennessee. All snow is expected Saturday night into the day on Sunday. Chances for significant snow accumulations or a big winter storm is expected, but it is also possible the system bring minimal impacts to West Tennessee depending on where the low sets up, how fast the rain turns to snow, and when the system moves out.
There are a couple of scenarios that could pop up depending on where the low pressure sets up. If it sets up further north, the heaviest snow will be north of Jackson.
If the low sets up further south, the heaviest snow will be south of Jackson.
Depending on which scenario occurs across the area, could be the difference between you seeing and inch of snow, or even as much as 10 inches. We will be keeping an eye on the forecast as the potential winter system gets closer as the week progresses. Stay with WBBJ throughout the week as we fine tune the forecast and build more confidence in what we can expect here in West Tennessee. Forecast models are still working on the timing and strength of the system.
Highs this weekend will only make it into the low to low to mid 40s Saturday and Saturday night lows are expected to fall back into the upper 20s again. The system should move out late Sunday with decreasing clouds by Monday morning, but it will get a bit cold Sunday night as well with lows falling back down near 20°. The winds will be a bit breezy on Saturday and weaken Sunday night, but we should have a northwest direction to the winds all weekend long.
Winter has officially started here in West Tennessee and we currently could see another round of winter precipitation this weekend. There could be more chances for severe weather though too as we get going into 2022 as well. So you need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.