Severe Weather Threat Upgraded Wednesday For West Tennessee
Tuesday Night Forecast Update
Tuesday Night Forecast Update for March 29th:
The breezy southerly winds have increased the temperature, humidity and storm energy across West Tennessee on Tuesday. The winds will kick up in speed and storms will fire up in the afternoon and evening on Wednesday. Extreme gusty wind storms and a few tornadoes will be possible. Please stay weather aware and keep a close eye on the situation as the storms move through. We have been upgraded to a moderate risk (4/5) here in Jackson as the Storm Prediction Center is becoming increasingly concerned about the setup on Wednesday. We will have more information and break down the rest of your forecast coming up right here.
Mostly cloudy skies and breezy weather will dominate most of your Tuesday evening. It will also be warm and the humidity will increase as the southerly winds continue to move across the region. A few sprinkles or light showers could pop up but chances for rain are less then 10%. Tuesday night lows will drop in the low 60s.
Mostly cloudy skies will continue into the day on Wednesday. Highs will reach the upper 70s due to some gusty southerly winds which will also be drawing up the gulf moisture increasing the humidity. Winds will be out of the south and sustained between 20-25 MPH before the storms even show up. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded all of West Tennessee to either an Enhanced Risk (3/5) or a Moderate risk (4/5).
Storms will fire up into the afternoon as early as 1 PM crossing the Mississippi River and track through Jackson between 3-5 PM. The storms will move across the Tennessee River between 7-9PM and we should dry out overnight.
Severe storms are possible with gusty winds being the main threat. Winds are expected to gust over 60 MPH and a few storms could produce straight line winds in the 70-80 MPH range. All of West Tennessee will be impacted by gusty storms in the afternoon. Chances for severe winds over 60 MPH are around 50% for the areas in the purple.
A couple tornadoes or large hail will also be possible as the line of storms tracks through. Some rotating storms out in the front of the line could rotate and produce a long track large tornado. Overall, the most likely tornadoes will be quick spin ups that develop along the storm line as it passes in the late afternoon and early evening hours. The tornado threat increases the further south you are across the region.
Here is a look at the timing of the storms from our WBBJ Storm Team 7 Weather Futurecast. Almost all forecast scenarios and depictions of the event have a similar timeline for the arrival of the storms.
3 PM – Crossing the Mississippi River
5 PM – Moving Through Madison County (If you have things to get done, do it before 4 pm in Jackson if you want to avoid the storms.)
7 PM – Crossing the Tennessee River
Behind the front, cool northwest winds will move on in as the night goes on. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 40s by Thursday morning.
Some clouds my stick around for the first half of the day before mostly sunny skies return for the afternoon and evening on Thursday. Highs will reach the mid to upper 50s behind the front, but we should see dry weather. The winds will remain breezy and come out of the west during the day. It will be a bit chilly on Thursday night as the skies clear out, lows will fall down to the mid to upper 30s again but we should stay above freezing.
Friday looks to be a pretty nice day with highs in the low 60s and mostly sunny skies during the day. The winds will stay light but come out of the northwest which will keep temperatures below normal for the day. By Friday night, the winds will start to shift back to the southwest allowing lows to stay out of the 30s and low to mid 40s are expected for the start of the weekend.
The upcoming weekend looks very similar to the previous weekend with highs in the mid 60s on Saturday before another weak, mostly dry front passes by. A few light showers will be possible on Saturday as the front drifts across the area. Highs on Sunday will struggle to get above 60° due to a brisk northerly wind. The winds will come out of the southwest on Saturday before the front passes. We will see more sun than clouds over the weekend, but as the front passes some clouds can be expected and a few sprinkles or some light rain cannot be ruled out either. Saturday night lows will fall down to around 40° and Sunday night lows will drop into the low to mid 40s.
Spring has officially kicked off here in West Tennessee, but we could see more rounds of winter precipitation or another freeze in the next couple of weeks. There will be more chances for severe weather though as we get deeper into Spring. So you need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.