Cold Rain Likely, Few Rumbles of Thunder South, Wintry/Mix Snow Chance Up North
Monday Night Forecast Update
Monday Night Forecast Update for January 23rd:
Most of West Tennessee will just see a cold rain from the incoming storm system. The forecast model trends tonight continue to keep the wintry mix and snow chances limited across West Tennessee. But there is a chance for a few rumbles of thunder down south as well as a brief wintry mix or light snow up north.
The showers will start Tuesday evening and stick around through Wednesday morning. The most likely place to see any snow or sleet will be counties the border the boot hill of Missouri or western Kentucky. Areas in Missouri could see 10″ of snow from the system. We will talk more about who is most likely to see the snow and how much as well as how far south the wintry mix line could go, all right here.
Mostly clear skies will stick around tonight but a few more clouds may try to move back in the early morning hours on Tuesday. The winds will stay light this evening before weakening overnight. The clear skies and calm winds will make for a chilly night with lows dropping down near 30°. Rain showers will hold off for tonight.
Clouds will increase as the day goes on and expect mostly cloudy skies by the afternoon. The winds will pick up as the day goes on and come out of the southeast between 10-15 MPH and that will likely keep temperatures a bit too warm for a wintry mix or snow for most of West Tennessee. Highs will make it into the mid to upper 40s across our viewing area. A few low 50s will be possible south of I-40.
However, as the evening progresses temperatures will continue to fall, especially areas north of Madison county where a brief wintry mix could pop up at times overnight. Temperatures will drop into the upper 30s in Jackson but will likely fall to the mid 30s north of Gibson county and some low 30s will be possible in Tiptonville and Union City.
The best chances for a wintry mix will be north of Crockett county and the best chances for some light snow will be counties that border the boot hill of Missouri and counties that border Kentucky. Up to an 1″ of snow could be possible in Lake, Obion, northern Dyer and northern Weakley counties.
Wednesday morning rain showers will linger for most of West Tennessee and even some light snow or a brief wintry mix could try to mix in, but I wouldn’t expect much for the majority of us. By the time the system moves out we will probably have picked up between 1/2″ and 1″ of rain. Highs on Wednesday will stay chilly and only reach the low to mid 40s. The winds will stay quite gusty most of the day coming out of the west making for a cold day. The skies may try to clear out some into the evening hours allowing the overnight lows to again fall down near freezing.
Thursday will be a dry but cold day and expect partly cloudy skies. We cannot rule out a brief shower northeast of Madison county on the back side of the low pressure system but shower chances on Thursday appear to be quite low. Highs on Thursday will be cold and only reach up to around 40°. On top of the cold temperatures, a brisk northwest wind between 10-15 MPH will also be sticking around, so be sure to bundle up on Thursday. Thursday night temperatures will bottom out from this system into the mid 20s.
The winds will shift from the northwest to the southwest on Friday helping to warm up back up to around 50°. There will be a few clouds on Friday but overall expect mostly sunny skies. With the clear skies Friday night, lows will again fall down to the mid 30s. It will continue to be a bit breezy at times into the afternoon and evening hours.
Another system is expected to show up over the weekend and it will be very similar the system we had push through last weekend. Rain showers will return Saturday night and stick around for most of the day on Sunday. We are not expected storms or snow, just a cold rain. Saturday highs will be the warmest all week and reach the mid 50s with Saturday night lows falling down into the mid 40s. The clouds will move in early during the day on Saturday and stick around for most of the weekend. The winds will stay out of the south or southwest over the weekend and that should keep our temperatures to warm for anything but rain, but we will be keeping a close eye on the forecast as the weekend progresses just in case there are any changes in the forecast.
After the coldest Christmas in decades here in West Tennessee, warmer weather returned for the start of the new year, but some cooler weather will move in to wrap up the month. This warm up led to more rain chances during the month of January. We had our first confirmed tornado on January 3rd near Brownsville. The next chance for rain showers with return Tuesday and that system could also bring some snow or a wintry mix with it north of Crockett county. You need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.