Severe Storms likely Friday night, Tornadoes will be possible
Friday Evening Forecast Update
Friday Evening Forecast Update for December 10th:
Storms are beginning to fire up in Arkansas and are moving to the northeast. A tornado watch has been issued for most of West Tennessee until 11 PM tonight. Remember, a tornado watch means conditions are favorable to tornadoes to develop in this area this evening. Storms could move into West Tennessee by 6 PM.
A moderate risk (4/5) has been issued for our western counties and the rest of West Tennessee is under an enhanced risk (3/5). Severe storms could develop earlier then we thought yesterday and watch is likely coming soon. The storm threat is from 6 PM this evening until 6 AM Saturday. Please stay weather aware and keep an eye on the situation.
Make sure you have a way to be alerted to and dangerous storms heading your way. We will be tracking the event all night in the Storm Team Weather Center, we’ve got you covered folks. We will have more details and the latest hour by hour breakdown of when you are most likely to be impacted from the storms coming up right here.
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT:
The next cold front is forecast to pass through late Friday into Saturday morning and bring a round of heavy rain showers and strong storms will it. Highs on Friday smashed the previous record of 73° set back in 1951. Friday was the 2nd warmest day on record in December in Jackson at the airport.
The Storm Prediction Center has put all of West Tennessee under a Enhanced Risk (3/5) for storms Friday evening through Saturday morning. some of our viewing area was updated to a Moderate Risk (4/5) and that only happens a couples times a year here in West Tennessee. Chances for tornadoes are between 10-15% tonight depending on where you are at in West Tennessee.
This is our most concerning severe weather set up in months. Please stay weather aware and have a way to be alerted to any extreme weather heading you way. The best way to do that is to download our WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather App from the App of Play Store. To download the WBBJ 7 Weather app, click here.
The greatest chance for rotating storms and tornadoes appears to be from 6 p.m. Friday night until 3 a.m. Saturday morning, but that is also the part of the forecast we have the least confidence in. Predicting where and when supercell thunderstorms develop in an unstable warm sector is very challenging. But any storms that develop in that time frame will have the potential to rotate and produce tornadoes.
As the cold front approaches, the storm threat will turn to more of a straight line wind concern that is likely to impact all of West Tennessee between 2 a.m. and 9 a.m. Friday morning. Winds could gust up to 75 MPH with this line of storms. Some embedded spin up tornadoes will also be possible along the line but those will be short lived and typically not as strong as the potential tornadoes that might develop in the warm sector late Friday evening.
Here is a look at the timing of storm line as it approaches the Mississippi River Friday night into early Saturday morning:
The main line of storms is expected to pass through Madison and Gibson counties right before the sun comes up on Saturday morning.
The storm line is expected to continue to move east into the early morning hours and crossing the Tennessee River after sunrise before clearing out into the mid to late morning.
By the time the lines passes, most of West Tennessee will have seen at least an inch for rainfall and some locations could see up to 2″ that get hit with some of the bigger storms. Once the line moves out, the cold is going to be settling on in.
THE WEEKEND:
Cooler weather will move in as the weekend progresses. Saturday night lows are expected to fall down near or below freezing again. Showers and storms are expected to hang around West Tennessee for the first half of the day on Saturday before clearing out towards the back half of the day. Sunday appears to be sunny and cooler with Sunday morning lows falling down to around freezing again. Highs Sunday will struggle to make it into the 50s.
FINAL THOUGHT:
Not only are we beginning to crawl deeper into the fall season and just 2 weeks away from winter, we are also in our second severe weather season. So you need to stay weather aware to changing weather patterns and monitor the forecasts closely. We got you covered in the WBBJ 7 Storm Team Weather Center as always.
For tips on preparing for the storms, click here. To download the WBBJ 7 Weather app, click here.
Storm Team Chief Meteorologist
Joel Barnes
Facebook: @JoelBarnesWeather
Twitter: @JoelBarnes13
Instagram: @joelbarnes13
